2026-01-01 12:23:03

You hold 100 million USD in your hands and want to multiply it by 10 again to enter the 1 billion club. The success rate is approximately 20%. This probability sounds pretty good.

Assuming you already have 1 billion and aim for another 10x growth to reach 10 billion, the success rate remains around 15%. The larger the amount, the more stable the growth.

The problem lies here—currently, you only have 30 million, and a 3x increase would push you past the 100 million threshold. This time, the success rate plummets to 2%. It sounds like magic.

The harsh reality is this—climbing from the 10 million level to 100 million has a success rate of only 1-2%, with a淘汰率 close to 99%.

In simple terms, it's like passing the Gaokao to enter the 985 universities—it's not that you're not努力, but this level of difficulty is designed for a very small minority. The same rule applies in the crypto market: the smaller the capital scale, the exponentially harder it is to achieve growth multiples. During this small-to-medium stage, the mismatch between the number of participants and opportunities is the most severe.

This is not just a mathematical problem; it’s a true reflection of the survival game in the market.

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SoliditySlayer

· 17h ago

Wow, this is the real truth. A 1-2% success rate is basically like playing the lottery. The gap from millions to billions is truly despairing. No wonder most people are still stuck in the same place. Honestly, the smaller the funds, the fewer opportunities there are. This analysis really stinged me. It means small investors will always find it hard to turn things around, feeling a bit like doommaxxing. Why does the probability increase as you go higher? This logic is a bit counterintuitive. Out of 999 people stuck here, only 1 can cross over. No wonder they say crypto is a zero-sum game.

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BearMarketBuyer

· 21h ago

This is reality. 1% of people overcome this hurdle, while 99% become cannon fodder.

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0xInsomnia

· 01-02 14:30

A passing rate of 1-2% is truly an incomprehensible number; the odds of getting rich overnight are even higher than that.

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Degen4Breakfast

· 01-01 12:52

1% success rate, 99% dreams shattered—that's the harsh reality.

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WenMoon42

· 01-01 12:50

Oh, this is why most people are still struggling at the bottom; a 2% success rate sounds just hopeless. --- Feels too blunt, the analogy of the 985 college entrance exam hits the mark—it's just a screening mechanism. --- So, you gotta get on board early; waiting until 30 million is almost impossible to turn things around. --- This data looks outrageous, but upon closer reflection, the reality is that the Matthew Effect of wealth is exactly about this. --- No wonder those big shots say to seize early opportunities—it's not mysticism, it's probability, friends. --- I just want to know how that 2% managed to do it; it definitely wasn't just luck.

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ApyWhisperer

· 01-01 12:46

Wow, a 1-2% success rate... that's almost like playing the lottery.

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BlockchainBrokenPromise

· 01-01 12:37

It's outrageous, a 99%淘汰率, so my 30 million is probably just cannon fodder. Had I known earlier, I should have just bought the dip and hoarded coins to save the hassle.

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GasFeeCryBaby

· 01-01 12:30

It's the same old story. Anyway, I can't move my 30 million now, so I might as well go all in and take a gamble.

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