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Prediction markets have become popular in the past two years, but most people only see speculators gambling within them. In fact, those who truly make stable profits are often the silent arbitrageurs.
Polymarket, as the most mainstream prediction market platform, has evolved into a complex ecosystem. In this ecosystem, arbitrageurs are almost the smartest group—they don't necessarily need to predict the outcome of topics correctly, but instead profit through platform mechanism loopholes, liquidity differences, mispriced assets, and other factors.
These arbitrageurs employ a variety of profit-making methods. Some exploit price discrepancies across platforms, some act as market makers in less liquid, niche markets to earn spreads, and others take advantage of shallow order book depth to create trading opportunities. They are like "scavengers" in prediction markets—each trade is carefully calculated, with risk management executed flawlessly.
Today, let's delve into how these arbitrageurs consistently profit in prediction markets and the logic behind each method. Interested friends can analyze and ponder carefully.
Only those who can access data and liquidity differences are true winners; retail investors can't see it at all.
This trick has some substance; you have to experience it yourself to understand what arbitrage really means.
Are there so many loopholes on Polymarket? Why didn't I notice?
The market maker approach looks simple, but in practice, there are definitely all kinds of pitfalls.
This is the power of information asymmetry; it's always the smart people who make money from other smart people.