Recently, I have been paying attention to the LIT project to see if its market logic can hold up.

The project's slogan is to surpass HYPE and become the new generation DEX leader, which has indeed attracted many top institutions to support it. However, based on its opening performance, this wave of popularity is rapidly fading. In terms of chip distribution, one-quarter has flowed into the community, and after the project's hype diminishes, the "hair-cutting" effect disappears. More importantly, the MACP market cap has already reached 600 million, which, for a new DEX still validating market demand, clearly overextends its valuation.

Comparing to HYPE, which is currently the top DEX with much greater stability, its market position is unlikely to be shaken in the short term. Subsequent entrants like Edge, StandX, and other DEX platforms will inevitably further divide the liquidity and profits in this sector, making the entire DEX ecosystem increasingly competitive and inward-looking.

From a data perspective, if LIT's price drops from its opening level to a market cap of 60 million after six months, it would mean a nearly 10-fold decline. This downward space is not hard to imagine—due to market cycle adjustments, chip unlocking pressures, HYPE's market competition, and the ongoing segmentation of the DEX ecosystem, each factor alone can exert downward pressure.

Our strategy is as follows: initially, we allocated a small position around 3.4. The recent dip at open yesterday provided an opportunity for brothers to follow up. Currently, this position has already secured a 40-point profit cushion, so I suggest everyone stay steady. If the price retraces to the 2.8-3.3 range later, averaging down in batches is a good option. The higher the price goes, the greater the risk.