2026-01-01 11:23:22

【The Major Technical Cycle Signal Emerges, Will History Repeat This Time?】

The 10-week and 50-week moving averages of Bitcoin have just experienced a critical crossover. This is not some flashy short-term technical indicator, but a truly long-term signal — every time it appears, the market has undergone intense volatility.

Looking back at the data, history gives us a very clear answer:

In September 2014? Bitcoin fell 67%. June 2018? Fell 54%. The extreme market in March 2020? Fell 53%. And in January 2022, there was a sharp 64% correction.

The interesting part is that these times were not mild technical shakeouts, but real deep adjustments. The market offered little buffer space.

If history repeats itself this time, following past patterns, we might face a retracement of about 50% to 60%. In USD terms, Bitcoin’s target range would be between $38,000 and $50,000. It sounds frightening, but this is the information provided by the technical analysis.

But there is a particularly important detail: technical signals themselves are not prophets; they are just risk alarms. What truly determines your profit or loss is often not the market’s direction, but whether you manage your positions well in a high-volatility environment. Traders who lose their rhythm and follow the herd during intense fluctuations are often the biggest losers.

The current judgment is: the trend itself has not been fully "falsified," and the long-term story may still be ongoing. But the risks in front of us are already clearly marked. Everyone should be aware of what preparations to make.

BTC0,16%

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ReverseTrendSister

· 01-04 10:40

History is such a thing... Tsk, here we go again? Don't fear a 50% drop, the key is not to get killed by your own play. --- Is this just a moving average crossover? Looks impressive, but if it really crashes down, no one can do anything. --- Technical signals are, to put it simply, about betting on probabilities. Those who lose are always the mindless followers. --- 38k to 50k? Fine, I bet it won't be that regular. History never copies itself. --- Position management... It's easy to say, but when the time comes, who can really control their hands?

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SmartContractRebel

· 01-01 11:53

Here comes the 50% magic again. Can we really dodge it this time? I doubt it. --- 38k to 50k… Here we go again, experiencing the heartbeat once more. --- The key is still position management. Technical analysis is just a warning; the real cut is for those brainless all-in players. --- Is history really so predictable? I always feel the next time will be different. --- Exactly, it's just a risk alarm. Don’t treat moving averages as divine. --- Every time we talk about repeating history, but each time there are new tricks… Could this be a trap this time? --- A 50% to 60% drop sounds normal, but who can stay steady when it really crashes? --- The trend is still just storytelling. That statement is a bit ambiguous. --- Those who understand position management have already run away. Most of the ones still hesitating are retail investors. --- The 10-week and 50-week crossover… Is this signal reliable? It hasn't been 100% accurate in the past either.

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 01-01 11:43

A 50 to 60% drop? Here we go again... History may repeat itself, but the wallet won't start over, buddy.

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DogeBachelor

· 01-01 11:34

This wave is really here, a 50% drop? I’ve already mentally prepared myself long ago, anyway, my position wasn’t fully loaded to begin with. --- Always talking about history repeating itself, I just want to ask when history will make me rich. --- 38k to 50k? Alright, just waiting to buy the dip, but I’m afraid the market will give another shock. --- The key is still stop-loss, too many people love chasing gains and selling at dips, no wonder they get cut. --- Just a technical warning, really taking this thing as a god is deadening. --- Every time they say it will repeat, when the big drop actually comes, not many can hold on, they’re all paper heroes. --- So what if it’s 50%? We survived 2022, this time is no different. --- Interesting, those previous waves all said the same, and in the end, didn’t they all come back to life? --- Position management is the most important, so true. Those who went all-in don’t even know how they died.

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SnapshotStriker

· 01-01 11:32

Here we go again? Will history really repeat itself? I think it's uncertain. --- A 50% drop? I've been mentally prepared for it for a long time, better than being afraid of insomnia. --- Technical signals are just signals, the key is to control the chips in your hands well. --- Fluctuating between 38k and 50k, I really have no confidence in whether I can hold on to the bottom this time. --- To put it simply, it's still about position management. Those who get trapped are all greedy. --- Every time we talk about history repeating itself, sometimes it's just the wolf coming. --- The risk warning is so clear, how many actually follow it? --- Continuing the long-term story? I just want to know when it will be over. --- If this decline really comes, a bunch of people will regret not reducing their positions earlier. --- The alarm is just an alarm, the market can go whichever way it wants, I only focus on operations.

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