Recently, an interesting phenomenon has been observed—on the night before the New Year, a large ETH holder transferred around $332 million worth of holdings to exchanges. This magnitude is indeed quite alarming and could easily stir market sentiment in the short term.

Looking at the data from another perspective, $332 million at the current price roughly equates to 110,000 ETH. This aligns closely with previously tracked net inflow data, indicating that significant funds are quietly moving assets to exchanges. They are clearly preparing for a sell-off.

So, the question is—why choose this specific timing? Several possibilities exist. Some funds might be doing year-end liquidation and tax planning, eager to cash out. Large holders might believe ETH still has short-term downside potential, selling first and buying back at lower prices. Others might be repositioning, moving from ETH to BTC or stablecoins. Regardless of the motivation, this is a bearish signal.

What I am more concerned about is the potential chain reaction. Once the price drops sharply, retail investors may panic and follow suit, leading to small-scale sell-offs that could escalate into a stampede. The price could quickly bottom out. Fundamentally, ETH should find support around $2800—this area is where many institutional costs are concentrated.

From an operational standpoint, strategies should vary based on the situation. If you are holding no position, don’t rush—wait and see. If the price breaks below $2900, you might try small positions to go long. For those already holding, setting stop-losses is essential; for example, if $2850 is broken, it’s time to exit—don’t hold on stubbornly. Protecting your principal is always the top priority.

Interestingly, while a large amount of ETH is flowing into exchanges, there are also 24,500 ETH heading toward staking. This indicates a market that is actually divided—some are liquidating, while others are positioning. Such divergence often signals that a turning point is brewing. The trend may become clearer in a few days. So, the best strategy now is to stay put, observe more, and avoid rushing to conclusions.