Recently, on-chain data has exploded—major whales with $8 million in principal are sweeping through 11 scam coins, piling their positions up to $13.76 million in one go. Such a big move, does it make your fingers itch? Thinking about whether to follow this wave and grab some profits? But wait, the drama of LIT's tenfold increase from launch last year isn't over yet—whales are frantically cashing out at high levels, and retail investors at the bottom have become bagholders, still crying over their losses. If you blindly follow this time, you're the next to be cut as a leek.

As an analyst who made accurate market judgments over the past year, I’ll say this: this big move by whales is not an opportunity at all; it’s just the prelude to a trap.

Let’s first break down the routines of these whales one by one, then I’ll tell you how to avoid these pitfalls, and finally, we’ll discuss how this situation might unfold.

**The first and deadliest trap: Mistaking "public holdings" of whales as "sure profit signals"**

Are you thinking—since whales reveal their positions on the blockchain, they must be inviting me to profit together? That’s too naive. On-chain data is black and white; whales love to play the game of "apparent heavy holdings, secret selling." Remember the OM incident? A whale quietly transferred $91 million worth of tokens into exchanges just before a market crash, while on-chain holdings still looked massive, as if they were holding on tight—yet, in the end, retail investors were fooled by this illusion and got buried. Whales can easily offset losses with other positions, but once your funds are trapped, that’s real damage. So remember this: the surface of a whale’s holdings is just a tool to lure in buyers; it’s not a reliable signal to copy.

**The second trap: Underestimating the liquidity black hole of scam coins**

What does 11 scam coins mean? Most of them are tiny projects with almost no trading volume and extremely poor liquidity. The entire market’s liquidity is already tight, and on Christmas day, Bitcoin plunged $2,300 in 45 minutes, triggering a $66 million long liquidation—such extreme moves are rare but have happened. Imagine, among these 11 coins, if a bubble inflates beyond control and liquidity evaporates, you won’t be able to sell out. By then, whales are already cashing out in batches at the top, and when you realize it, you’re the last one holding the bag.

**The third trap: Overestimating your risk tolerance**

Following whales is essentially gambling your luck and judgment. But in reality, 99% of retail investors lose blood in such games. Whales have large capital, information advantages, and flexible cashing-out options—what do retail investors have? Only blood and tears. If this move crashes, you can’t afford to lose, but whales can offset losses with gains from other positions.

**How to avoid these traps? It’s simple**

First, don’t blindly trust on-chain holdings as a sign of true intent; those can be faked. Second, stay away from small coins with poor liquidity, no matter how tempting the gains look. Third, always ask yourself: if I lose everything this time, can I afford it? If not, it’s time to stop.

What’s the outlook? This round will likely see more fluctuations in the short term, but the overall direction won’t be very optimistic. Instead of gambling on luck with whales, it’s better to stay calm, protect your principal, and wait for real opportunities. The market is always there; rushing to get in often just means the start of being cut.