2026-01-01 11:20:39

US employment data has recently become the focus of the market, but can we really trust these numbers?

A jobless claims number of 199,000 looks decent at first glance, but this is probably just a seasonal filter at the end of the year. Citigroup offers a different perspective: December non-farm payrolls could plummet to 75,000, and the unemployment rate might even reach 4.7%. As labor force participation rises, the unemployment rate is also increasing, and this inverse fluctuation signal is quite striking.

The market's expectations for rate cuts are currently a bit too optimistic. After this wave of data releases, once the January holiday truly ends, the real state of the labor market will surface. By then, those overly bullish expectations may face a "makeup removal."

From a trading perspective, when risk assets sway in the fog of data, truly smart participants are building their emotional fortress with hardcore consensus.

What is your judgment—are these employment data just a statistical visual illusion, or are they a genuine signal of market cooling?

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RektButSmiling

· 01-01 18:29

Citibank's numbers are much more pessimistic than the official version, this is what I believe --- Starting to play data magic again, the seasonal adjustment is really effective --- Unemployment rate rises, participation rate also rises? I find this reverse signal uncomfortable, there must be something hidden --- Wait until after the January holidays to see the real deal, right now this bunch of data is just an illusion for the retail investors --- Smart people are all hardcoding their positions, I just look at the chaotic data with confusion --- 19.9K haha, the seasonal filter explanation is really brilliant, it's basically closing your eyes and stealing a bell --- The market folks' fantasy about rate cuts is simply outrageous, wait to be hit hard by reality --- Trading in the fog of data is the most feared, it's a hundred times better not to move than to move recklessly

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AirdropNinja

· 01-01 11:50

Numbers can lie, and the seasonal tricks have been played for so many years... Citibank's version sounds more realistic, with the 75,000 non-farm payrolls directly breaking the bulls' defenses. Waiting to see the reversal show in January, but those who are all-in now better be careful. The 199,000 figure is just a sugar-coated shell, biting into it is all a trap. Is the expectation of rate cuts so exaggerated? The real situation will teach us a lesson. Looking at the contradictory data, I just want to laugh; this market is living in its own dream. Hardcore consensus, to put it simply, is gambling—everyone is betting on the Fed's resolve. Unemployment rate rising and labor participation also rising? That’s unscientific, there’s something fishy. The real show is on the day of the market closing; right now, it’s all just appetizers. The quality of this data is questionable; it’s better to look at on-chain signals for sincerity.

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MetadataExplorer

· 01-01 11:42

In the fog of data, everyone has to gamble; it all depends on whether Citi's latest prediction is accurate. Unemployment rate rises along with labor force participation rate—this combo move is a bit strange. The seasonal adjustment trick is played every year—could it be especially effective this year? The rate cut expectation should wake up—truth will be revealed in January. Instead of obsessing over the numbers, it's better to see what positions institutions are secretly building. This is the market—always swinging between uncovering the truth and spinning stories.

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ReverseFOMOguy

· 01-01 11:39

Looking at this version from Citibank, you can tell the data won't look so good Fake prosperity under seasonal filters, waiting to be exposed Unemployment rate rising inversely, this wave is likely to crash, are you ready to short? 75,000 non-farm jobs? The market will be crying then Expectations of rate cuts are too greedy, waiting to be slapped in the face by reality

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ReverseTrendSister

· 01-01 11:27

Data fraud scene, I'm tired of the seasonal adjustment talk, let's wait for the truth to come out in January. Expectations of rate cuts are so high, a sudden drop in non-farm payrolls could directly break the market. If Citigroup's forecast of 75,000 jobs is really hit, the bullish traders who are currently gloating should wake up. 199,000? Haha, that's just a年底的障眼法, let's wait for data verification. Unemployment rate rising, participation rate rising, I’ve seen enough of these reverse signals, the套路都一样. The market is self-medicating; after the holidays, we'll know if it’s truly good or not. Consensus fortress? Funny, everyone has to kneel before the data.

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SignatureCollector

· 01-01 11:25

Citibank's prediction is quite aggressive; a non-farm payroll of 75,000 directly coming in would be the real highlight. Let's wait for January's data; it's still early to say anything now, as seasonal adjustments are playing their usual tricks. Unemployment rate rising while labor force participation rate also increases is indeed an inverse signal that can't be sustained. The rate cut expectations have gone too far; it's time to wake up. In the data fog, it's easy to get cut, so we still need to see the real situation in January.

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