#预测市场 Seeing the fluctuations in the prediction market regarding the Fed chair nomination, I am reminded of an important point.

Wash's probability surged from 7% to 48%, while Haskett dropped from 85% to 42%—this not only reflects changes in policy expectations but also the market's rapid pricing of uncertainty. Many people see such volatility and rush to adjust their strategies, fearing they might miss out on something. But I want to say that this is precisely the moment when we need to exercise restraint.

Changes in probabilities in prediction markets essentially reflect shifts in participant consensus, not some absolute truth. Even if Wash is ultimately elected, his policy stance may differ from current market expectations. The key issue is not "who will win," but whether our asset allocation can withstand the test regardless of who takes office.

My advice is, rather than frequently tracking these number changes, focus more on a few fundamental questions: Is your position overly concentrated on a single expectation? Can your risk tolerance truly handle unexpected policy shifts? In the long run, the change of the Fed chair will ultimately translate into specific policies, and a good investment strategy should be adaptable to different policy environments.

A prudent attitude is to pay attention to these changes while sticking to your own allocation principles.