#预测市场 Prediction Market is making big moves again, with Gemini's winning probability on Kalshi jumping directly to 86%? That's an incredible surge. At the beginning of the year, it was only 30%, now it has nearly tripled, indicating that Gemini has indeed been busy this year.

In contrast, ChatGPT's probability has dropped from 41% to 8%, which feels a bit cold. But thinking about it, it's normal—competition in the large model track has always been fierce, and falling behind even a little can lead to being left behind. Trading volume has already reached $14.08 million, showing that there is still quite a bit of capital interested in this.

The most interesting is Grok, which rose from 14% to 6%. Wow, did it actually drop or what? It seems the hype around xAI hasn't caught up yet. But ultimately, it depends on the data from the LM Arena leaderboard; placing this bet now might be a bit early. The crypto community is best at predictions, and whether this bet pays off depends on your insight.