First annual decline after Bitcoin halving: Is the four-year cycle really dead?

【Crypto】In 2025, Bitcoin reaches an awkward milestone—its annual closing price is lower than at the beginning of the year, breaking the curse that it would inevitably rise within a year after the halving. This “slap in the face” has sparked intense debate within the industry: has the long-standing “four-year cycle” theory that has troubled analysts for years truly come to an end?

A review of historical context makes it clear. The last halving occurred in April 2024, and according to past patterns, Bitcoin should have hit a new high within the following 12 months. And it did—on October 6, reaching a historic high of $126,000. But the story took a turn afterward. A fierce correction struck, with prices dropping over 30% from the high, and the year’s performance completely stalled.

What record was broken? In 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin hit new highs in the year following each halving. This three-for-three winning streak has now been ended.

Vivek Sen, founder of Bitgrow Lab, bluntly states: “Bitcoin’s decline in the year following halving officially marks the death of the four-year cycle.”

But wait, the story isn’t over yet. Another perspective suggests that the issue isn’t with the cycle itself, but with changes in driving forces. Investor Armando Pantoja points out that the large influx into ETFs, institutional participation, and Bitcoin reserves on corporate balance sheets—these have all changed the game. Retail investor sentiment is no longer the dominant factor; instead, liquidity fluctuations, interest rate changes, regulatory developments, and geopolitical risks are now at the forefront. In other words, Bitcoin has upgraded from an “emotional asset” to a “macro asset.”

There is also a third voice. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, believes that the four-year cycle still exists, just in a different form. It is no longer driven solely by programmed halving events but is intertwined with more complex market structures, presenting a new evolutionary pattern.

The current consensus is: there is no consensus. Market understanding of Bitcoin’s long-term cycle structure is fracturing, and new cycle models have yet to take shape. We may be in a transitional period of paradigm shift.