Year-end employment data releases mixed signals, and the unemployment rate may face upward pressure

2025-12-31 15:52:22

【Blockchain Rhythm】A set of interesting employment data came out at the end of December. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits during the week of Christmas dropped from 215,000 to 199,000, which looks pretty good— but here’s the problem: the forecast was 220,000, so this decline was actually smaller than expected.

Economists are cautious about this data. The reason is simple: the seasonal adjustment during holiday weeks was particularly strong this year, casting doubt on the data’s reliability. They believe we need to wait until mid to late January to see a more accurate signal from initial jobless claims.

That said, the total number of layoffs is still low, which is a positive sign. The non-farm payrolls data for December, to be released next week, is expected to show an increase of 75,000 jobs. But this doesn’t mean the situation is entirely optimistic. Economists predict the unemployment rate will rise to 4.7%, partly because the labor force participation rate is increasing—that is, more people are re-entering the job market, increasing competition.

Overall, the surface data looks good, but the underlying structural pressures are worth paying attention to.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

14 Likes

Reward
14
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

VitalikFanAccount

· 01-03 15:07

Seasonal adjustments are messed up, this data is really inflated. Let's wait until January to see. --- Unemployment rate to rise to 4.7%? More people are coming in to compete for jobs, and the competition will intensify again. --- Non-farm employment only increased by 75,000? No matter how you look at this data, it's not very good. --- Holiday data is inherently unreliable; economists are all questioning it. There's no need to be overly optimistic. --- The rise in labor force participation sounds positive, but in reality, it just means increased competition, and workers will have to work harder. --- Laying off at a low level and still being praised? Let's wait until January to see the real situation. It's too early to draw conclusions now. --- This data is contradictory, and it looks like it's being used to set the stage for bad news.

View OriginalReply0

BasementAlchemist

· 01-03 08:53

Such severe seasonal adjustments, can the data be trusted... It feels like they're just dressing up bad news.

View OriginalReply0

ChainSherlockGirl

· 2025-12-31 16:22

Data, when seasonally adjusted, makes it hard to tell what's real and what's fake. We'll have to wait until January to know the true situation. But speaking of which, more people entering the job market increases competition. Does this affect the flow of large wallet addresses on the chain? Economic tightening often has interesting effects. Unemployment rate rising to 4.7%? This pace seems a bit off. Expectations are just a slap in the face. Anyway, seasonal adjustments can always find reasons every year. Honestly, we still need to look at the real data in January. For now, let's just treat this set as a reference; there's too much personal speculation involved.

View OriginalReply0

TokenomicsTinfoilHat

· 2025-12-31 16:21

The data looks good, but it's actually all fake. Once seasonal adjustments are made, everything gets messed up. Let's wait until January to see.

View OriginalReply0

BlockchainWorker

· 2025-12-31 16:20

Data can be deceptive; once seasonal adjustments are made, the true picture becomes unclear. Unemployment rate is rising again, and the job market is about to heat up... Forget it, I’ll just keep lying flat. Those Wall Street folks are always throwing smoke screens; we’ll see the real story next month. Non-farm payrolls are the real reassurance, 75,000 jobs... feels a bit fake. 4.7% unemployment rate? Oh my, I’ll probably need to go through a hundred interviews to find a job.

View OriginalReply0

CryptoNomics

· 2025-12-31 16:20

honestly the seasonal adjustment manipulation is the real story here. if you actually ran a proper AR(1) model on the underlying noise, you'd see the jobless claims signal is essentially stationary—meaning this whole "positive beat" narrative is just noise. but sure, let retail traders celebrate 19.9k like it means something without understanding the endogeneity problem first.

Reply0

BearMarketSurvivor

· 2025-12-31 16:13

Data conflicts, seasonal adjustments are too blunt of a tool. Let's wait for the real signals in January — that's when the supply chain will be truly tested.

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-0717ab66

· 2025-12-31 16:06

Seasonal adjustments really messed this up. Can we trust the data... Let's wait until January to see. It's too early to say anything now. The unemployment rate is going up again, and the competition is heating up. There's a question mark on the data, but low layoffs are indeed good news. More people looking for jobs = increased competition, that logic makes sense.

View OriginalReply0

ColdWalletAnxiety