70% of traders on Polymarket are losing money, while profits are concentrated in less than 0.04% of addresses

On-chain data from DeFi Oasis paints a harsh picture of Polymarket: out of more than 1.7 million addresses that have traded, around 70% of traders are at a loss, while only 30% are profitable. Notably, less than 0.04% of addresses capture over 70% of total profits across the entire platform—equivalent to approximately $3.7 billion.

Most users earn only marginal profits. Traders making under $1,000 account for more than 24.5% of all addresses, yet receive less than 1% of total profits. To earn over $1,000, a participant must rank within roughly the top 4.9% of the most effective trading addresses—clearly reflecting a “winner-takes-most” structure.

Prediction markets surged during the 2024 U.S. election cycle, as political and macroeconomic markets attracted significant capital inflows. However, profits largely flowed to large wallets and insider-type participants, while the majority of retail traders lost money by chasing news and crowd sentiment.

In short, the prediction market trend is not much different from memecoins—if you are grinding for airdrops, be serious about it; otherwise, it is better to stay out.70% of traders on Polymarket are losing money, while profits are concentrated in less than 0.04% of addresses

On-chain data from DeFi Oasis paints a harsh picture of Polymarket: out of more than 1.7 million addresses that have traded, around 70% of traders are at a loss, while only 30% are profitable. Notably, less than 0.04% of addresses capture over 70% of total profits across the entire platform—equivalent to approximately $3.7 billion.

Most users earn only marginal profits. Traders making under $1,000 account for more than 24.5% of all addresses, yet receive less than 1% of total profits. To earn over $1,000, a participant must rank within roughly the top 4.9% of the most effective trading addresses—clearly reflecting a “winner-takes-most” structure.

Prediction markets surged during the 2024 U.S. election cycle, as political and macroeconomic markets attracted significant capital inflows. However, profits largely flowed to large wallets and insider-type participants, while the majority of retail traders lost money by chasing news and crowd sentiment.

In short, the prediction market trend is not much different from memecoins—if you are grinding for airdrops, be serious about it; otherwise, it is better to stay out.