Why is it difficult for retail investors to make money despite BTC rising for three consecutive years? Traders predict the true bull market won't come until 2026

【Crypto World】Recently, a phenomenon in the crypto community has sparked discussions: the three-year rise of BTC is well recognized, but many retail investors still haven’t made money. When researchers organized market opinions, they found that there is a general consensus — we are still in a bear market cycle, and even if the bottom is reached, it will take another 2-3 months of consolidation before the market can recover. More aggressive predictions even believe that the true bull market will not be seen until after Christmas 2026.

Interestingly, traders are particularly concerned about whether liquidity easing will occur in a deflationary environment. Some people view the role of the crypto market in the AI era from a more macro perspective, thinking it is somewhat like the evolution of production relations. Short-term, significant volatility is unavoidable, but before AI technology is truly implemented, this market is unlikely to take off early. This view indicates that the market’s understanding of the current situation remains quite cautious.