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- What is the next step for Strategy and other Bitcoin treasury companies?
In fact, in 2025, the volatility of Bitcoin prices and broader consolidation led to a sharp collapse in the stock prices of Strategy and most of its competitors, as shown above.
A CryptoQuant report stated that Strategy has made a tactical shift in its Bitcoin accumulation model, as Bitcoin may weaken in 2026 after entering a bearish market last month.
The analysis clarified that the company no longer considers its exposure to Bitcoin as hedged against all market conditions, as it still remains a core part of its long-term strategy. Accordingly, management now admits that maintaining a Bitcoin portfolio requires flexibility in protecting it through cash reserves, hedging, and selective selling of liquidity during crises.
The report concluded that MSTR appears to recognize a significant likelihood of a sharp or prolonged decline in Bitcoin’s value. This coincides with the company’s strategic shift from a focus on intensive Bitcoin accumulation to a more conservative, liquidity-focused approach, with the largest expected drop in Bitcoin’s value during 2025.
CryptoQuant analyst says: "The decline was so severe that nearly every on-chain major indicator and technical indicator now suggests that the market has entered a bearish phase, as evidenced by CryptoQuant’s Bull Score indicator dropping to zero (most bearish) for the first time since January 2022, when the previous bear market began."
The growth of companies mimicking strategies continues, with more than 191 public companies holding Bitcoin in their treasury reserves, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data.
Many of these public companies follow a buy-and-hold strategy for stocks and bonds similar to Strategies, but mining companies like Marathon Digital (MARA) combine production with stock retention. Other companies, such as Metaplanet, have global appeal as an inflation hedge.
As with Strategy, the stock prices of these companies have fallen between 50% and 80% from their peak in 2025, and net asset value premiums are shrinking as Bitcoin's performance falls short of expectations. See the example in the chart below.
Stock prices of MARA, Metaplanet, and Twenty One Capital
A report from CryptoQuant indicated that Bitcoin treasury companies that raised capital through PIPEs have experienced significant declines in stock value, with stock prices often trending toward their PIPE issuance levels.
The analyst concluded that the ongoing rise in Bitcoin's price is the only potential catalyst to prevent further declines in these stocks. Without it, many are expected to continue falling toward or below their private market prices.