At 3 a.m., the final shoe drops—The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, and BTC immediately surged 10% to $94,000. But before the excitement could settle, the dot plot poured cold water on the market: there may be only one rate cut in 2026, and future moves will depend on data.

The price is also very honest. From $94,000 directly down to below $90,000, it’s still wobbling below that level.

However, this meeting revealed two key signals:
First, no rate hikes in the short term. Following the predicted path, one cut in 2026, and another in 2027. Some say "what’s the use of such small cuts"? But monetary policy has never been about the size of the cuts alone—the key is the direction. As long as we are in a rate-cutting cycle, liquidity expectations will not reverse, which is a long-term positive for risk assets. Once a trend is formed, it won't easily turn around.

The second, even more critical: starting December 13, the Fed will repurchase $40 billion of short-term government bonds each month.

What does this mean? The Federal Reserve is officially switching from a "balance sheet reduction" to an "expansion" mode. The previous continuous tightening of liquidity stopped on December 1, and now they are actively injecting liquidity into the market. This is real action, not just verbal commitments.

On the surface, this meeting seems similar to previous ones—another routine 25 basis point move. But upon closer inspection, Powell’s wording and actual actions are signaling a shift.

In the short term, the market may still fluctuate, but the overall direction is clear: a combination of easing cycle + balance sheet expansion, and funds are moving in a favorable direction.