At 3 a.m. on December 11, the last Fed interest rate drama of the year will be staged. CME Group data shows that a 25 basis point rate cut is almost certain - the probability soars to 87%. But it's not that simple.

The decision-making level has begun to "quarrel". After two consecutive cuts in September and October, if it falls again this time, the federal funds rate will fall to the range of 3.50%-3.75%. The problem is that there may be more than three people voting against it, and policy differences are on the table. More importantly, what Powell will say - even if interest rates are cut, there is a high probability that he will release harsh words: "Don't expect it to be easy to cut later." The data is not good-looking? Then don't think about it. Those in the market who expect continued easing in early 2026 may be disappointed.

Gold is now stuck at this juncture.

Looking up, interest rate cuts can lower real interest rates, central banks around the world are still frantically hoarding gold, geopolitical chaos is a pot of porridge, and U.S. bonds are piled up as high as a mountain. UBS and Goldman Sachs both shouted: the price of gold can reach $4,500 in 2026. It sounds beautiful.

But what about looking down? Gold prices have risen by more than 60% this year, and profit-taking orders are panicking. If Powell comes to a wave of "hawkish interest rate cuts", it will be a typical "buy expectations and sell facts" - directly smash down. Whether the line of defense of $4,100 to $4,150 can be held has to be questioned.

It is enough to focus on three signals: how to write policy statements, how the dot plot predicts 2026, and Powell's true attitude towards inflation and the economy. These three things can basically determine the market trend from the end of the year to next year.