At 3:30 a.m. on December 11, the Federal Reserve's FOMC conference is about to appear, what signal will Powell bring to the market?

Recently, I noticed a few key trends, which are quite interesting to string together:

Let's talk about energy first. OECD data shows that energy costs in more than 20 countries are falling, supply-side pressure is loosening, and the fire of inflation is finally not so strong. What does this mean? Central banks can finally breathe a sigh of relief and do not have to stick to high interest rates.

Looking at the IMF's recent speech in Beijing, the focus is no longer on "suppressing inflation", but on "how to improve productivity and stabilize growth". This shift in stance reveals that the judgment of international institutions on the economic cycle is changing.

The BIS side is more focused on the issue - global interest rates and derivatives markets are repricing. The cost of capital has entered a sensitive period, and large funds are reevaluating the future path, which has a significant impact on risk assets.

The CFTC has been emphasizing one thing: regulatory clarity. Cross-border transaction rules and market access standards are gradually being clarified, which is more meaningful for long-term layout than short-term speculation.

Putting these clues together, it feels like the macro environment is transitioning from a tightening high to a manageable stage. The press conference in the early morning of tomorrow morning may determine the market rhythm before the end of the year:

If Powell's tone is soft, risk assets are likely to react positively;
If we continue to be vigilant, the market may have to wait for the next round of key data.

For the crypto market, this conference is not light.