Bitcoin broke 100,000, Ethereum returned to 4,000, and the market was jubilant? Don't rush to open champagne yet.

The real variable to be wary of has just surfaced - this Fed operation is rare in history.

Interest rate cuts should have been a good sign, but this time it was different. Warning while lowering, stepping on the brakes while releasing water, what is hidden behind this "hawkish interest rate cut"?

Simply put: don't expect the policy to give the green light all the way. The easing cycle can take a sharp turn at any time.

The question arises - is this good or bad? The answer may be hidden in the press conference at three o'clock tonight.

Now the Fed has split into two factions:
· One faction believes that the economy is still fragile and must continue to be relaxed
· The other faction is worried about the resurgence of inflation and advocates an immediate stop

Neither side can convince anyone. This rare internal confrontation often indicates that the market is about to usher in sharp fluctuations.

Everyone is waiting for Powell to speak - "How much policy room is left in the future?"

There is one more adverb and one less twist in this sentence, and market sentiment may reverse instantly.

Even more exciting is the dot plot. If there are multiple opposition votes, some people shout for a 50 basis point cut, and some people insist on zero interest rate cuts, this is not an ordinary policy disagreement - this is a public tearing face.

But if you think about it calmly, what really determines the direction of BTC and ETH is not the interest rate cut itself, but two lower-level variables:
✔ The real attitude of the Fed
✔ Will the balance sheet expand again?

If the Fed resumes buying Treasury bonds, it will be equivalent to turning on targeted QE in disguise. Where will the money flow from? Where will it pour in?

The answer is self-explanatory.

Tonight is not an ordinary policy night, but a key node in asset repricing.

Summary in one sentence: This is not the end of the market, it may be the real starting point.