The Fed meeting in December was calm on the surface, but there was an undercurrent surging inside.

25 basis points rate cut? This matter is basically a certainty. But what really makes the market nervous is the roadmap for 2025 - a total of only 50bp cut, far lower than previously expected. The hawkish ending script has been rehearsed countless times in advance by traders.

Where is the contradiction? On the one hand, the employment data is dismal (119,000 new additions), inflation is still at a high of 3.0%, and the leading indicator LEI ratio has fallen to 0.85, which looks like the eve of a recession. On the other hand, there are rumors that a dovish figure like Hassett may take the throne, with at least three internal votes against it. Powell is caught in the middle, with political pressure and economic reality burning at both ends.

Key point map. If the median is locked in the range of 3.0%-3.25%, it is equivalent to directly announcing the end of the easing cycle. What's even more ruthless is that the probability of raising interest rates in 2026 is actually marked at 20% - what does this imply?

The chain reaction has begun: the dollar index strengthened, Treasury yields rose, and the stock market began to mutter. The so-called "soft landing" is now more like walking a tightrope. Once the hawkish-led script is solid, fluctuations may be indispensable.

At the press conference on the 11th, listen to how Powell rounded up this scene.