There is a blockbuster signal from the market - the Fed's interest rate cut in December is almost a foregone conclusion.

The performance of the three major U.S. stock indexes diverged significantly last night: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 0.07%, the S&P 500 index rose slightly by 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.22%. Chinese stocks were steady, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 0.39%.

But what really made the market boil was the sharp rise in expectations of interest rate cuts. White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Hassett recently bluntly said that the Fed will most likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. This statement completely ignited market sentiment. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in December has soared to 87%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut in January next year has also reached 27%.

The technology sector has been sharply differentiated. Nvidia shares rose 2% after the company announced a partnership with Palantir and Midpoint Energy to launch a new AI data center platform called "Chain Reaction", targeting the trillion-level market. Meta's stock price surged 3%, and Zuckerberg is reported to have cut its metaverse budget by 30% and fully shifted to an AI strategy.

But some companies have suffered heavy setbacks. Micron Technology plummeted 3%, suddenly announcing its withdrawal from the consumer storage business, and will bet on AI chips in the future - which may mean that SSD and memory prices are about to rise. Worse still, Intel's stock price crashed 7% as the company terminated negotiations to sell its network business.

The data on the job market is even more intriguing. On the one hand, the number of first-time jobless claims was only 191,000, a three-year low, and it looks like companies are sticking to their employees; but on the other hand, the total number of layoffs in the first 11 months of this year has exceeded 1.17 million, a year-on-year increase of 50%, the highest record since 2020. What's even weirder is that ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 people in November, and the expected growth turned into a contraction.

This delicate situation of "not recruiting and neither laying off people" gives the Fed the perfect reason to cut interest rates. BlackRock recently released a report predicting that not only is a rate cut in December certain, but the Fed may continue to cut interest rates in 2026. Global capital has begun to lay out in advance, waiting for the moment when the policy will be implemented in December.

For the cryptocurrency market, the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations is undoubtedly a major positive. Can mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum take advantage of the momentum to break through? The market is watching closely. Loose liquidity tends to drive up risk asset prices, and cryptocurrencies, as an emerging asset class, have historically been extremely sensitive to macro liquidity changes.

The Fed's interest rate meeting in December may be the last key node in the financial market this year.