In the recent wave of market turmoil, many people still don't understand what happened. To put it bluntly, three major events collided together - and the timing was accurate.

Let's talk about the Fed's operation on December 2. What does quantitative tightening mean when it officially stops? To put it simply, it is no longer desperately pumping money from the market. Sounds good? But the problem is that the market has long been betting on this hand, and the boots are not so exciting.

What really catches people off guard is the Japanese side. On December 1, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda suddenly said harshly, and the market directly gave a 76% interest rate hike expectation. Japanese bond yields soared to record levels. Why is this so deadly? Because in the past few years, too many people have been playing a game: borrowing ultra-low-interest yen and changing hands to buy US stocks and Bitcoin.

Now this logic has collapsed. Think about it, the yen suddenly became more expensive, and the money lent had to be repaid. What to do? You can only sell US stocks and Bitcoin for yen. As a result, the yen became more expensive and more assets had to be thrown. This is a typical death spiral - asset prices fall, the yen is strong, continue to sell, continue to fall.

The domestic side has not stopped. On November 29, the central bank reiterated that virtual currency business is an illegal financial activity, and even stablecoins have been named. The knife of supervision is always hanging.

Now it is such a situation: Japan is pumping water, and although the United States has stopped shrinking its balance sheet, it has not released water on a large scale. Liquidity is caught in the middle, and both long and short sides are waiting and seeing. For ordinary investors, this is both a dangerous period and a layout window - it depends on how you judge the direction of this force.