Friends who have been watching the market recently may have felt it - the market has begun to be restless again. According to reliable sources, the G7 and the EU are intensively negotiating a comprehensive ban aimed at Russia's maritime oil export channels. If this matter is really implemented, the impact cannot be digested in one or two trading days.

First figure out the logic. The previous set of "price cap" sanctions has actually been overthrown - Russia still transports oil to large buyers such as China and India with about 350 so-called "shadow fleets", and Western restrictions are basically not stuck. But this time it is different, the ban is aimed at the shipping services themselves: insurance, tanker leasing, port calling...... A third of Russia's oil exports depend on the Western system, especially the fleets of Greece and Malta. Once this line is cut, the transport chain is directly broken.

How do oil prices go? Conservatively, it is not impossible for Brent crude oil to break through $120 per barrel - you must know that Russia's seaborne crude oil accounts for 14% of the world's supply, and this gap of this magnitude has been smashed, and the balance between supply and demand has been broken in an instant. What's even more troublesome is the chain reaction: sea freight rates will soar because of detours and risk premiums, and finally this account has to be spread to end consumers, and inflationary pressure will have to make a comeback.

India may be hurt the hardest - nearly 40% of their crude oil imports depend on Russia and are highly dependent on sea lines, and skyrocketing costs are almost certain. Although China has pipeline transportation support, it is difficult to stand alone in the overall environment of rising oil prices. As for Russia, which accounts for 45% of its finances, it is estimated that it will desperately expand the "shadow fleet" after being stuck, but the safety hazards and compliance risks of those old ships...... It's really hard to say how it will evolve in the future.

For those of us who focus on risk assets, the transmission chain is clear → escalating geopolitical game energy price riots→ rising inflation expectations→ Fed policy variables→ and capital risk aversion. In the coming weeks, keep an eye on the fluctuations in oil prices and US Treasury yields, which will tell you in advance where the market is going.