#数字资产行情上升 $ETH A recent interesting discussion has exploded in the market—will the Fed actually cut rates?

CME data is right here, and the probability of a rate cut in December has surged to nearly 90%. Sounds like good news, but it’s not that simple.

The key issue is a timing mismatch. The crucial economic data—December’s employment numbers and CPI—won’t be released until January. This means the Fed’s decision today is actually made with incomplete information. Once the January data comes out, if it shows inflation rebounding or the economy still running hot, the Fed could immediately change its tone: this rate cut is a one-off, and there will be no further cuts for more than a year.

This is the essence of the so-called “hawkish trap”—on the surface, it looks like a dovish signal (rate cut), but in reality, the path forward might be even stricter tightening (no further cuts).

To make things more complicated, there’s now a significant split within the Fed itself. The future path mapped out by the dot plot is fractured and unclear—no one can really say what the policy pace will be next year. Plus, Powell’s position isn’t stable, and it’s unknown what changes a new chair might bring after taking over.

For the market, this kind of uncertainty is the real risk. The benefits of a rate cut have already been mostly priced in, and every next step comes with risk: if the economy remains strong, it will push up inflation expectations and cause the Fed to halt rate cuts; if the economy weakens, it will trigger recession fears and capital outflows. Either way, it won’t be a soft landing.

So, what really matters isn’t simply whether there’s a rate cut, but what signal Powell sends. Will he hint that this is the last rate cut with no follow-up, or open the door to a cycle of consecutive cuts? History shows that a surprise rate cut in December usually means the economy can’t handle things anymore, but whether this time will truly turn things around still needs to be confirmed by subsequent real data.