The dust has settled! The US has officially ended quantitative easing, and the probability of a rate cut in December has soared to 91%.
Remember Powell's remark on October 29, "A rate cut hasn't been decided yet"? Back then, the market only gave it a 35% chance. Now? The situation has completely reversed.
I believe this marks a watershed moment in Fed policy—shifting from a laser focus on inflation to prioritizing employment. The September jobs data released on November 20 was sobering: only 119,000 new jobs added, far below the levels seen in the first half of the year. Unemployment rate? 4.4%, a nearly four-year high.
Once inflation is no longer a straitjacket, the pace of rate cuts could accelerate. The market in 2026 might just hinge on this move...
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The dust has settled! The US has officially ended quantitative easing, and the probability of a rate cut in December has soared to 91%.
Remember Powell's remark on October 29, "A rate cut hasn't been decided yet"? Back then, the market only gave it a 35% chance. Now? The situation has completely reversed.
I believe this marks a watershed moment in Fed policy—shifting from a laser focus on inflation to prioritizing employment. The September jobs data released on November 20 was sobering: only 119,000 new jobs added, far below the levels seen in the first half of the year. Unemployment rate? 4.4%, a nearly four-year high.
Once inflation is no longer a straitjacket, the pace of rate cuts could accelerate. The market in 2026 might just hinge on this move...