Today BTC plunged straight down to 85,600. At first, I didn’t pay much attention—it’s just another market shakeout, nothing unusual.

But then I saw a number: 76%.

Suddenly, everything clicked.

I scoured all the data I could find, spent several hours piecing things together, and the conclusion isn’t great: this might not be an ordinary correction, but the beginning of a trillion-dollar domino effect starting to wobble.

**What exactly is the 76%?**

It's the market-implied probability that the Bank of Japan will raise rates in December.

The recent buzz about the “BOJ possibly hiking rates December 18-19” isn’t baseless. Traders have priced the odds at 76%, and for January it’s even higher—straight to 90%.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hasn’t exactly been hiding his stance lately, either: “We will make decisions as appropriate depending on the situation.”

Translation: It’s about time. Get ready.

Japan’s short-term government bond yields have already soared to their highest levels since 2008. The market has long since voted with its feet.

**The question is, why is it different this time?**

Because globally there’s a $14 to $20 trillion “ticking time bomb,” and the fuse is in the BOJ’s hands.

The core mechanism is simple: **carry trade**.

Japan has had ultra-low interest rates for decades (still just 0.5% now), so global institutions borrow yen like crazy → swap to USD or EUR → buy US stocks, Treasuries, BTC, and other high-yield assets → pocket the spread.

This playbook has been running for decades, snowballing in size.

But once Japan hikes rates, the game changes: borrowing costs go up → carry trade profits shrink → positions start to unwind → US assets get sold off → chain reaction in the markets.

As a highly volatile asset, BTC is often one of the first to get dumped. Today’s 85,600 could just be the appetizer.