The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Gradually Becoming Obsolete as Institutional Capital Dominates the Market's New Landscape

Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle pattern is gradually weakening. According to analysis by asset management firm Grayscale, previous halving events triggered strong price surges, but now institutional capital dominates the market, resulting in trends different from those in the past.

According to blockchain media outlet CoinTelegraph, Bitcoin experienced repeated surges and crashes after the halvings in 2013 and 2017. However, Grayscale notes that the current upward trend is more stable than before, and the recent 30% correction can also be seen as a typical strong market pattern. Additionally, factors such as interest rate changes, US crypto regulation, and institutional portfolio allocation are also influencing the market.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode and the institutional division of a compliance platform show that long-term holders make up a significant portion of Bitcoin’s supply, leading to reduced volatility. With ETFs and institutional demand changing the supply structure, Bitcoin’s price is deviating from the established 4-year cycle, a view that is gaining more support.

On the other hand, some analysts still argue that halving events remain a strong price driver. They believe halving is an irreversible supply reduction, and long-term holder activity also changes with the halving cycle. But Grayscale emphasizes that the market structure is changing and the established cycle theory is gradually weakening.