#美联储重启降息步伐 [Federal Reserve Consumer Expectations Data Released: Inflation Expectations Stuck at 3%, Market Rate-Cut Hopes May Be Dashed]

The New York Fed just released a new survey, and the results are a bit disheartening. Respondents' median annual inflation expectations for the next 3 and 5 years are still at 3%, unchanged from last month. It seems that although inflation has eased a bit month-over-month recently, the public and businesses haven't changed their views on future price increases at all. This is what's called the "stickiness" of inflation expectations—you just can't bring it down even if you want to.

**Why focus on this data?**

The New York Fed's consumer inflation expectations survey is a key long-term inflation anchoring indicator closely watched within the Federal Reserve. When the 3-year and 5-year expectations are firmly pinned at 3%, it shows that the market's view on future prices is still high, far from the Fed's 2% policy target. What's the big problem here? If everyone thinks prices will rise 3%, companies will adjust wages and prices accordingly, and real inflation will become a "self-fulfilling prophecy." It's a vicious cycle.

**What do Fed officials think?**

This data gives more ammunition to the hawks (the cautious camp) within the Fed. They might say: "Look, inflation expectations are still so high, we absolutely can't rush to cut rates—we need more time to thoroughly change everyone's expectations." In other words, the market's fantasy of "multiple rate cuts" in 2025 may be dashed. The longer high rates are maintained, the harder it is for certain assets that rely on growth stories instead of real cash flow (such as some tech stocks) to justify their valuations.

📊 **Ripple Effect**

For $BTC and other risk assets, a prolonged high interest rate environment is a noose. For the US dollar, delayed rate-cut expectations are actually bullish—providing support for the exchange rate. The inflation battle looks like it's about to drag into its toughest phase yet.