#美联储货币政策预期 US economic data is mixed, and the short-term direction of Federal Reserve policy remains unclear. The Beige Book shows that economic activity has seen little recent change, employment has declined slightly, and prices have increased moderately. However, the NABE survey indicates that economists have raised their expectations for economic growth next year. The key lies in the state of the labor market; the latest initial jobless claims data unexpectedly dropped, hitting a new low since April. I believe the current economy is in a delicate balance, and there is disagreement over whether the Fed will cut rates in December. It is necessary to closely monitor subsequent employment and inflation data, as well as statements from Fed officials, to determine the policy direction. I suggest tracking on-chain capital flows to observe changes in institutional investors' allocation to US dollar assets.