#美联储重启降息步伐 Bitcoin has bounced back above $91,000 again today. This rebound is pretty straightforward—the market is betting that the Fed will cut rates this week, and traders have priced in the probability at over 90%.

However, after breaking above $90,000, market sentiment is actually quite divided. There’s an on-chain indicator called SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which has now dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of 2024. When this indicator gets this low, it usually means that most of the long-term holders who wanted to sell have already done so. Once the selling pressure eases, technical traders start talking about a "confirmed bottom."

At the end of the day, it all comes down to whether a few key price levels can hold or be broken.

Looking upward, $91,650 is the first hurdle. If that level is taken out, the $93,000–$95,000 range will be tested next. If Bitcoin can hold above that, even $98,200 or $107,000 isn't out of the question.

But on the downside, caution is needed. The first line of defense is in the $87,800–$89,500 range, followed by the $83,822–$82,477 zone. The real danger lies at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level on the weekly chart (the analyst didn’t specify the exact value). If that level is decisively breached, the entire structure changes, and the April low around $76,000 will be back in play. The next major support lies in the $74,496–$71,237 area.

In short, rate cut expectations have given the market some room for imagination. But whether the technicals can deliver depends on how these key levels perform.