Can Bitcoin break through its all-time high? The answer may be in the hands of a single company.

JPMorgan’s latest research report makes a bold prediction: Bitcoin could reach $170,000 in the future. But there’s a hard condition for this target—Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy, stock ticker MSTR) must not rush to sell its 650,000 Bitcoins.

Let’s look at the current market situation. The miner community is experiencing a tough winter: tightening regulations and soaring energy costs have led to a noticeable drop in total network hash rate. What’s worse, mining costs have surged to $90,000, but the coin price is still hovering below that. This inverted situation is forcing miners to sell their inventory to stay afloat.

But JPMorgan’s analysts believe miner selling pressure isn’t the key variable. The real lifeline lies in Strategy’s mNAV metric—that is, the company’s market cap divided by the total value of the Bitcoins it holds.

Right now, that number is 1.13. As long as it stays above 1.0, with $1.44 billion in cash reserves on hand, Strategy can hold its position for two years without selling. If it falls below that line, or if MSCI removes it from its index constituents in January next year, things could get tricky: passive funds would dump the stock en masse, and the company might be forced to liquidate Bitcoin to deal with a liquidity crisis, which could send the coin price into a downward spiral.

Will MSCI actually take action? The market has already priced in this risk. Since news of this possibility leaked in October last year, Strategy’s stock price has pulled back 40%. JPMorgan believes that if MSCI ultimately decides to keep the company, the coin price could quickly rebound to its pre-October level.

The key conclusion is this: JPMorgan is betting that Bitcoin will surge to $170,000 in the next 6 to 12 months, and whether it succeeds depends on whether Strategy can hold its position.

Do you think this company can withstand the pressure and not sell its Bitcoin?