#美联储恢复降息进程 The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, has signaled that the situation is becoming increasingly clear. In his speech on Monday, he mentioned that the Central Bank will comprehensively consider domestic and international economic conditions, inflation data, and trends in the financial markets, and then weigh the pros and cons of raising interest rates to make decisions. The implication is that action may indeed be taken in December.

The market has already reacted. According to the overnight swap index, traders have raised the probability of a rate hike at the end of the policy meeting on December 19 to 64%, and the likelihood of action before the end of January next year has surged to 90%. Following Ueda's remarks, the yen immediately saw a slight rebound against the dollar.

What is even more noteworthy is that, prior to his speech, the market's expectations for interest rate hikes had already been brewing — the yield on the two-year government bonds has risen to its highest point since the 2008 financial crisis. Ueda emphasized that even if there is indeed a rate hike, it would only be a slight adjustment to the current ultra-loose policy, and not a radical shift. However, for global liquidity and risk assets, this "slight adjustment" could trigger a chain reaction.