The recent fall of Bitcoin has been very sharp, dropping below 90,000 on the 17th, lower than the closing price of 2024, and has erased the annual rise of 2025 (which once reached 30%).

Analyze the reasons for the fall:

1. On October 10, Trump made threatening remarks about imposing a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese products, triggering turmoil in global markets, and cryptocurrencies also experienced a flash crash, with BTC falling from a high of 121662 to a low of 102000 in one day, marking the start of a downward channel. It is reported that a considerable number of institutions and market makers were liquidated during this flash crash, suffering heavy losses. The current overall weakness in the cryptocurrency market is likely greatly influenced by the aftermath of this deleveraging event.

2. On the macro policy front, it was originally a lifeline for the market in the short term. After the end of the U.S. government shutdown, the market did not respond positively as expected; at the same time, related officials from the Federal Reserve successively made statements, and the probability of not lowering interest rates in December has significantly increased, leading the market into a pessimistic sentiment.

3. Many long-term holders choose to take profits at the psychological threshold of 100,000 dollars.

4. The mNAV (Market Net Asset Value Ratio) of mainstream DAT companies has fallen below 1, indicating that the market capitalization of their stocks is lower than the value of the cryptocurrencies they hold: Strategy 0.937, Metaplanet 0.912, Bitmine 0.83, SharpLink 0.84. On one hand, this indicates that the market is no longer willing to pay a premium for crypto narratives, and on the other hand, DAT companies find it harder to buy and buy.

5. In terms of ETF data, Bitcoin ETF had only 9 days of positive inflows out of 27 trading days starting from October 10, with a total outflow of $4.1 billion; Ethereum ETF had a total outflow of $2 billion.