0916 Market Overview: Fed rate cut expectations rise, market volatility continues to operate at low levels, XRP DOGE ETF will be launched this Thursday.

Overview of Policy Events and Market Impact

1. XRP DOGE ETF will launch this Thursday

REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) confirmed to launch this week! XRPR will become the first spot ETF tracking the performance of the third-largest cryptocurrency, XRP, launched by REX-Osprey (also the team behind SSK). According to Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, XRPR will debut this Thursday alongside the Dogecoin ETF (DOJE). What does this ETF mean for XRP? Is it a turning point to drive institutional funds into the market, or will it merely bring short-term speculation? Will this ultimately push XRP beyond its 2018 ATH $4.161 (Gate spot data)?

2. Tether plans to launch USAT stablecoin:

Tether announced plans to launch a new stablecoin called USAT, aimed at complying with U.S. regulatory requirements.

Market Impact: The launch of USAT may enhance Tether's compliance in the U.S. market, boost user trust, and drive the development of the stablecoin market.

3. The annual non-farm employment revision released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on September 6

The number of new jobs added as of March 2025 was 910,000 less than initially estimated, marking the largest downward revision in history and falling far short of market expectations. The data highlights a weak labor market, reinforcing recent expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, putting pressure on the dollar, while gold and risk assets like Bitcoin are expected to benefit.

4. This week's market interest rate cuts have been fully priced in

The market expects the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting to at least “cut interest rates by 25 basis points,” and bets that the rate-cutting cycle will extend until 2026. The slowdown in employment has reinforced expectations for easing. However, due to high inflation and tariff impacts, Powell's speech and the dot plot may send a warning of market over-optimism, leading to a repricing of asset prices. A 25 basis point cut is almost a foregone conclusion, while a 50 basis point cut remains a low probability. Investors should focus on the dot plot, statement wording, and voting divergences.

Mainstream Coin Market

BTC returns above the 50-day moving average, indicating an increase in short-term buying power

BTC has recently been fluctuating between $115,000 and $116,500, with a slight increase breaking through the $115,000 resistance level. The next resistance level is around $117,500 (near recent highs) and there is expected selling pressure in the $119,000–$122,000 range; the support level of $114,500–$115,000 is the first level of support, and if it is breached, we will look towards stronger support near $110,000.

If BTC can consistently hold above $115,000–$116,000, there may be a chance to test the resistance at $117,500–$120,000; if it pulls back, pay attention to the support range of $110,000–$112,000.

ETH gently rebounds, with strong bottom support

The latest price of ETH is around $4,500–$4,700, having risen about +7% in the past week, slightly outperforming Bitcoin.

Support is clearly at the $4,250–$4,300 range. If this range holds, the target is $4,500–$4,600; if it falls below $4,200, caution should be taken as the risk of a pullback increases.

Strategy Suggestion: Uptrend Continuation, Focus on Dips for Positioning

Bitcoin has made a strong rebound this week, rising from around $111,000 to $116,200, with a weekly increase of approximately +3.8%. The current price has broken through the key resistance at $115K, showing strong short-term momentum. If it can maintain this range, it may further challenge $118K–$120K above.

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Leverage can amplify both gains and risks, please allocate according to your own risk tolerance. The above content is for reference only and should not be considered as investment advice. More information can be consulted to make informed investment decisions.