Ethereum rallies 20%, ETH now undervalued relative to BTC

Ethereum has surged 20% in the past 24 hours, trading at $2,209 as of press time, in one of its sharpest short-term moves this year.

The rally was backed by a sharp rise in trading activity, especially in the derivatives market, whose volume jumped 184%, as per Coinglass data. Open interest in Ethereum (ETH) futures has climbed 20% in the past 24 hours, signaling a wave of fresh capital entering the market.

Rising open interest alongside price usually points to the start of a new trend, as traders build long positions rather than simply covering shorts. Meanwhile, more than $265 million in short positions were liquidated, adding fuel to the upward momentum.

Even though Ethereum has risen 54% in the last month, it’s down 26% so far this year, but there’s still potential for a recovery if momentum continues

The rally coincides with the ongoing decline in the ETH/BTC Market Value to Realized Value ratio. On a May 8 post on X, analysts at CryptoQuant noted that, based on this ratio, Ethereum is now at its most undervalued level relative to Bitcoin (BTC) since 2019

The MVRV ratio indicates whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market cap to its realized capitalization, or the average price at which tokens last moved. Currently, the ETH/BTC MVRV ratio has fallen into a historically low range of 0.4–0.8, levels last seen in 2019. In past cycles, such undervaluation zones preceded prolonged ETH outperformance against BTC, including in 2017, 2019, and 2021.

Although the signal appears bullish on paper, macro and on-chain data indicate Ethereum might not be able to easily repeat its past. The current cycle is marked by stagnant network activity, rising token supply, and underperforming ETFs, all of which have a significant effect on ETH’s potential price

Ethereum’s circulating supply recently hit an all-time high, reversing the previous deflationary trend. Lower mainnet fees and a decline in ETH burns have altered its supply dynamics since EIP-1559. Active addresses are also flat, and decentralized finance activity has leveled off. Even institutional flows appear muted, with major Ethereum ETFs like Grayscale’s ETHE seeing billions in outflows.

Although the ETH/BTC MVRV appears to be flashing a bottom at the moment, it is unclear if this will signal another altseason led by Ethereum. Ethereum may require a fresh catalyst, such as the approval of staking in ETH ETFs or renewed DeFi interest, to sustain its momentum.