#原油价格上涨 Attacks on tankers, the shutdown of Iraqi ports, and emergency oil releases by governments – these events have already driven global oil prices above $100 per barrel in some trading sessions.
Diplomatic Situation: Can the US and Iran Reach an Agreement?
Short-term probability: LOW.
Reasons:
1. Ceasefire conditions create conflict
• Iran is reportedly demanding guarantees that the US/Israel will not attack again and is requesting compensation/security guarantees.
• These conditions are politically very difficult for the US to accept.
2. Strategic leverage
• Iran's biggest bargaining ch