Daily News | Grayscale Won the lawsuit, BTC Rose, Wu Jihan Cautiously Bullish on the Market, Long-term Holders Continue to Increase Their Holdings of BTC

Crypto Daily Digest: The SEC may respond to multiple Bitcoin ETF applications this weekend, Wu Jihan is cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin

Recently, the US SEC has been quite busy.

According to the latest news, the US SEC is expected to respond to Bitcoin ETF application documents submitted by Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, WisdomTree, and Invesco by the end of this week, including refusal, approval, or postponement. Bitwise’s application will be reviewed before Friday, while other applications will be reviewed the next day so that the SEC may weigh them before the weekend.

It is reported that the SEC postponed the spot Bitcoin application for 21Shares and ARK Investment Management in early August, and had previously rejected multiple applications in the past decade.

Yesterday, according to US court documents, Grayscale’s request for review has been approved and the US SEC order has been revoked. Last year, Grayscale filed a lawsuit against the SEC over its refusal to convert its flagship fund GBTC into spot Bitcoin ETFs. This ruling means that Grayscale has won the lawsuit against the US SEC.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyfart said that this does not mean that GBTC will automatically convert to ETFs, but it does bring the event about (the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs) one step closer.

In addition, Grayscale’s victory over the SEC ushered in GBTC’s busiest trading session in 14 months, with nearly 20 million shares of GBTC changing hands during the day, reaching the highest level since the crypto market crash in June 2022. Meanwhile, GBTC’s stock price rose 18% to nearly $21. In addition, Bitcoin briefly broke through $28,000 in the early hours of today and is currently trading at $27,738.18. Later yesterday, the negative premium rate of grayscale GBTC narrowed to 17%.

According to Coinsecko data, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is approximately $1.14 trillion, with an increase of 4.1% in the past 24 hours. In addition, the current price of Bitcoin is $27,549.09, accounting for approximately 47.1% of the market value. The price of Ethereum is $1,717.43, accounting for approximately 18.1% of the market cap.

Musk’s cryptocurrency empire layout is still ongoing, and according to yesterday’s news, social media platform X (Twitter) has obtained the necessary licenses for cryptocurrency payments and transactions in the United States.

According to data displayed by NMLS, the Rhode Island currency transmitter license was approved on August 28th (which is required to provide virtual asset-related services on behalf of users). This will enable X to store, transfer, and exchange digital assets for its vast user base.

According to CoinDesk, Matrixport, a crypto financial services company owned by Wu Jihan, has turned cautious and bullish on Bitcoin, preferring to buy and strictly stop losses in the event of recent price declines.

Markus Thielen, Director of Research and Strategy at Matrixport, stated that cryptocurrency traders can hold long positions in Bitcoin and set stop losses below $25,800. Under the condition of strict stop loss, we will buy more Bitcoin. It is expected that the yield of treasury bonds will decline and the US technology stocks will also rise. We expect a 10% pullback by the end of the summer, and we have achieved this and implemented appropriate risk management methods, allowing traders to try to go long again.

According to research reports, despite recent fluctuations of billions of dollars in Bitcoin, long-term holders of Bitcoin (BTC) continue to increase their holdings. These long-term holders also are firmly holding their spot positions, avoiding direct transactions that may use Bitcoin as collateral.

Data shows that long-term holders continue to increase their holdings of Bitcoin, with 40% of holders remaining unchanged for more than three years, reaching a historic high.

Carefully observing the net position changes of long-term holders, there has been an accumulation trend since March 2023. This behavior indicates Optimism and potential resilience under market volatility. However, although holders who have held Bitcoin for more than three years continue to increase their holdings, inactive supply indicators within a year show a more bearish sentiment.

Although holders who have experienced bull and bear market peaks remain steadfast, new holders who have gained positions during the bear market have shown more unease. It is understood that these holders withdrew their positions during the July drop in Bitcoin prices from a low of $29,000.

Today’s Main Token Trends

BTC

Last night, the overall market surged due to the news of GrayScale winning the SEC lawsuit, breaking through the $28.1K USD level. In the short term, there might be a retest of the $26,975 USD level. If the price doesn’t recover above $29.7K USD, the bearish trend remains intact.

CYBER

Last week’s strategy involved step-by-step accumulation at $4.100 USD, $3.933 USD, and $3.783 USD, followed by a significant trend development. The peak target was exactly hit at our previously provided target of $8.185 USD, with yesterday’s high reaching $8.26 USD, a substantial gain of 125.15%, closely aligning with the Fibonacci sequence target.

Such precise target hits indicate a high concentration of market-making chips in the hands of market makers. Successfully hitting accurate peak targets in sequence suggests completing the main bullish wave. In the short term, watch whether $6,700 USD and $5,875 USD are held as support. There’s potential for a final upward wave targeting $17.79 USD. Short-term monitoring is advised using Fibonacci retracement levels for exit points.

DOGE

The overall daily chart has been in a downward trend for 835 days. A significant trend development might occur before the end of the year. Holding steady above the base price of $0.05099 USD, there’s a possibility of an independent trend upward towards $0.10799 USD, $0.15879 USD, $0.43360 USD, and historical highs.

Macro: US Data falls short of expectations, leading giants such as Buffett to bearish the market

The series of US economic data released Tuesday night were all less than expected, and the market’s bet on the Federal Reserve suspending rate hikes in September increased. At the same time, the probability of resuming rate hikes in November decreased, causing the US dollar index to plummet, closing 0.45% lower at 103.48.

The three major US stock indices collectively closed higher, with the Dow Jones Index up 0.85%, the Nasdaq Index up 1.74%, and the S&P 500 Index up 1.49%. Vietnamese electric vehicle manufacturer VinFast plummeted 43%. US technology stocks generally strengthened, with Tesla up 7.6% and Apple, which is about to release a new phone, closing up over 2%.

The number of JOLTs job vacancies in the United States in July was 8.827 million, far below the market expectation of 9.4 to 9.5 million; The market pricing has been advanced from July next year to June when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates once. Nick Timiraos, also known as the “New Federal Reserve News Agency,” commented that the Federal Reserve is glad to see this.

The overall yield of US Treasuries fell by about 10 basis points to a new low in two weeks. The yield of two-year US Treasuries, which is sensitive to monetary policy, fell by 16 basis points from its daily high, breaking through the two levels of 5% and 4.9%, erasing all gains since August 14th; The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 14 basis points from its daily high to 4.12%, erasing all gains since August 11th.

Spot gold benefited from the weakening of the US dollar and US bond yields, rising more than $20 from intraday lows and closing 0.9% higher at $1,937.43 per ounce. Spot silver jumped during the US session, closing 1.95% higher at $24.7 per ounce, reaching a new high in nearly a month.

Meanwhile, “stock giant” Warren Buffett and the “big bear prototype” Michael Burry have been bearish on the market, and this pessimistic information continues to affect the direction of the financial market.

Senior economist and advisor to former US President Reagan, Steve Hanke, interpreted that the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway and the “big bear” may be preparing for the next troubles and predicting that the US economy will enter a recession in the first half of 2024.