2026.5.3 Opinions

Three consecutive days of forced northward movement, volume divergence, overbought signs, leaving huge hidden dangers for the market. Yesterday, the bearish cycle at high levels dulled, waiting 12 hours for the bulls to complete acceleration. May volatility may increase compared to April.
Characteristics of April's market: bears push for several days until the final explosive kill, then after multiple pullbacks, sideways consolidation, and slow formation of a bull trend. Conversely, the market also pushes for a final short squeeze to hit a new high, complete the kill, then begin to reverse.
This morning shows signs of a push to a new high.
Fear and Greed Index 47 (Neutral), yesterday 39 Fear → has recovered, market "optimistic but cautious about chasing highs."
BTC network funding rate -0.0034% Negative rate = longs pay shorts, market short-term biased bearish/cautious.
Bitcoin: High shorting is advisable. The recent three days of forced rise are not smooth but step-by-step, with forced moves not sweet. At the same time, hidden risks are also present.
Long-short dividing line: 78,500; early morning accelerated attempt to hit 79,200 failed, bearish forces gathering.
Currently, the market shows multi-cycle signal divergence: short-term bullish arrangement (15min/4h MA moving averages upward), but daily CCI overbought, MACD histogram bottom divergence warning "rise first then fall," caution needed for chasing longs.
Currently, perpetual contracts dominate the rise, spot demand is weak, and the upward structure is more "speculative." Once the trend reverses, the decline could accelerate sharply.
Support: 77,000-77,200, Resistance: 79,500-80,400
Second Bitcoin: High shorting is advisable.
In the short term, bullish divergence has appeared (price near 2265-2275 new lows while RSI rises), but rebound volume is insufficient, still constrained by 2340-2,360.
"Prefer chasing the rise, not bottom-fishing." If 2340 cannot be broken above, it indicates a continuation of the decline.
For long entries, wait until the 15-minute candlestick closes firmly above 2,330 before entering.
Yesterday's failed attempt to push to 2350 led to a sharp reversal. Although a short-term rebound may occur, a bearish trend is forming.
Support: 2220-2240, 2263; Resistance: 2340-2350, 2365, 2400
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