Just checked ADA and it's sitting right at this interesting wedge apex around $0.25 - up about 1.4% today. The thing that caught my eye is that the Cardano team confirmed Protocol 11's hard fork is still locked in for late June despite them finding a memory issue in the test release. They're patching it with a 10.7.1 update instead of pushing the broken version live, which honestly is the right call.

So technically, ADA's been in this descending wedge since February when it peaked near $0.42. Both the upper and lower boundaries are converging right around current levels, which means we're at a decision point. Break above $0.2450 and we could see the SAR at $0.2656 come into play, then Supertrend at $0.2753. But if it drops below $0.2300, that opens the door to $0.2200 and potentially worse.

What's interesting is that the hard fork staying on schedule removes one negative catalyst through June. But honestly, the bigger risk right now isn't Cardano-specific - it's macro. There's geopolitical tension (Strait of Hormuz stuff) that markets haven't fully priced in yet. Volume dropped 24% to $16.62M while open interest actually climbed, so positions are holding. Longs are getting liquidated at resistance while shorts sit pretty, which suggests weakness if we can't break through.

I'm watching $0.2300 as the key floor. If that breaks on a daily close, we could see some real selling pressure. The hard fork timeline staying intact is bullish narrative-wise, but technicals need to confirm with a proper breakout above that wedge resistance. Otherwise, we're just range-bound waiting for the next catalyst.