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Arthur Hayes's new article: The four-year Bitcoin bull run cycle may fail, with USD and CNY liquidity being key variables.
On October 9, CEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an article titled "Long Live the King!" In the article, he stated that the historical peaks of Bitcoin are related to the changes in "price and supply" of the US dollar and the Chinese yuan, and that the current cycle is different from the patterns of the past four years. He analyzed three cycles from 2009 to 2021: when the credit growth of the US dollar/RMB slows down or contracts and interest rates rise, Bitcoin peaks and falls; when there is large-scale QE by the US dollar, helicopter money distribution, or strong credit expansion in China, prices strengthen. The article points out that the Fed's tendency to lower interest rates and expand money supply, along with China's end of deflation and moderate credit expansion signals, may prolong this round of rise.