Bitcoin and Ethereum CME gaps attract market follow, after the pullback, a new round of pump may come.

Market Observation

Core inflation data in the U.S. has been below expectations for five consecutive months, but there are differing views on future trends in the market. Some believe that the impact of tariffs will become evident in July-August, while others emphasize companies' pricing restraint amid weak demand. There are also divisions within the Federal Reserve, with the chairman hinting at a possible lowering of the interest rate cut threshold, while some officials advocate for maintaining a tight policy. Currently, the Federal Reserve tends to remain cautious, emphasizing the need to be wary of short-term data misleading and reaffirming the independence of the central bank.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. Congress has passed the establishment of "Cryptocurrency Week" to accelerate the legislative process, and the "GENIUS Act" has become the core of the regulatory system. This act brings the stablecoin market under the regulatory framework and requires reserves to be in cash and short-term U.S. government bonds. This initiative aims to standardize the market, consolidate the digital dominance of the dollar, and create a demand pool for U.S. government bonds. At the same time, large tech companies are laying out stablecoins, attempting to establish an efficient cross-border settlement network. This shift in regulatory paradigm may strengthen Bitcoin's position as a digital gold asset allocation.

After Bitcoin reached a historical high of $123,000, it entered a correction, with several analysts focusing on the technical repair of the CME futures gap. It is generally believed that Bitcoin may pull back to the range of $113,800 to $117,000 to fill the gap, and then may welcome a new round of pump. Some opinions suggest that the market has not yet peaked, with the next key level at $136,000, and strong support in the range of $93,000 to $109,000. From a cyclical perspective, the current expansion has only lasted 12 days, leaving room until the historical cycle.

Ethereum's market capitalization share has surpassed 10%, driven by the demand growth for stablecoins and tokenization trends. On the technical side, analysts are also paying attention to the CME gap, believing that after filling the gap in the range of $2,830 to $2,925, Ethereum is expected to break above $3,200. Additionally, the increase in Ethereum's trading activity is correlated with the rise in small-cap stocks, providing momentum for a pullback in the context of expected liquidity easing.

The altcoin market is showing sector rotation: payment tokens are starting first, while large-cap coins are gaining momentum, forming a relay team with specific ecosystems and Layer 1 projects. The popularity of Chinese Meme narratives remains strong, with several related tokens reaching new historical highs. AI-related tokens are also performing actively.

Key Data (as of July 16, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $117,798 (Year-to-date +26.05%), Daily Trading Volume $66.923 billion
• Ethereum: $117,798 (Year-to-date -5.91%), Daily trading volume $41.523 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 62.9%, ETH 10.2%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 106,515 people were liquidated, total amount of $355 million

ETF Flows (As of July 15)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$403 million, net inflow for 9 consecutive days
• Ethereum ETF: +$192 million, net inflow for 8 consecutive days

Today's Outlook

• Multiple projects conducting token issuance or airdrop activities
• The U.S. House of Representatives will explore digital asset tax policies.
• The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book on economic conditions
• Multiple projects will undergo token unlocks.

Hot News

• Large ETH purchases attract follow
• Multiple projects conducting token buybacks
• Traditional financial institutions launch cryptocurrency services
• The M&A activity in the cryptocurrency sector is active.
• Some whales are reducing their holdings of Ethereum.

Top five market gains: Staika (STIK) rise 124.33%, Osaka Protocol (OSAK) rise 38.46%, PepeCoin (PEPECOIN) rise 28.96%, CoW Protocol (COW) rise 25.74%, Aevo (AEVO) rise 20.84%.