QCP: The market shows localized interest in the bullish performance for Q3, and expectations for the Intrerest Rate to remain unchanged are strengthening.

On 4 June, the QCP released today’s market report, and the unexpected increase in jobs boosted risk sentiment in preparation for Friday’s key non-farm payrolls data, with the S&P 500 gradually approaching the psychologically important mark of 6,000 points. Solid non-farm payrolls data will cement the Fed’s narrative on the resilience of the labor market, further reinforcing expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged. On the trade front, the market remains on the sidelines in anticipation of the US-China talks. Bitcoin’s front-end volatility has eased somewhat, with the spot price stabilizing around the familiar $105,000; 1-month implied volatility has slipped below 40. Bitcoin continues to trade in a range with light open interest and normalized skewness suggesting a lack of directional belief. Since May, the volatility curve has flattened from the mid-end to the back-end, reflecting a similar decline in the VIX, prompting opportunistic long volatility trading. Notably, the $130,000 call option was bought at a volatility of 47 in September, showing a local interest in Q3 bullishness. Looking ahead, the third quarter is likely to be more challenging. Tariff-related impacts may start to trickle into macro data, while fiscal risks around the BBB and the debt ceiling could bring headline volatility. In the absence of a clear catalyst, Bitcoin is unlikely to break out of the current range significantly.