[ Strong non-agricultural data, why the unemployment rate is rising against the trend👀]
The U.S. job market survey is mainly divided into:
📍Enterprise survey (CES, non-agricultural)
📍Telephone survey (CPS, unemployment rate)
In the household survey of this telephone questionnaire, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%. In terms of details, the number of employed people decreased by 310,000 and the number of unemployed increased by 440,000.
In addition, the labor force population further rose to 166.8 million, a record high, but the non-labor force population did not change much. This shows that the American people continue to look for jobs in the labor market, not leaving the labor market, and the long-term employment supply and demand structure is not easing. change
After the release of the data, the probability of FedWatch suspending interest rate hikes in June rose to 74.7% (35.8% in the previous week), while the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in July and September in the second half of the year is about 50%, which shows that:
The divergence of non-farm payrolls and household surveys, as well as the easing of the tight structure of employment supply and demand, and the downward trend in wages have not changed, so that market expectations have increased towards the "skip scenario" of Fed member Waller mentioned in the June monthly report (considering the jump in credit tightening) After June and decide whether to raise interest rates in July according to the data)
In conclusion, the non-agricultural data has increased the probability of pausing interest rate hikes. The next focus is whether the core CPI will fall in May?
However, after the banking crisis, the Federal Reserve has gradually increased its focus on the economy. Even if it raises interest rates in June, it is very likely that it will send a signal to suspend interest rate hikes in the post-meeting meeting🤔️
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