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Viewpoint: Prediction markets exhibit "extreme information asymmetry and obvious arbitrage opportunities"
Odaily Planet Daily reports that, according to monitoring by 10X Research, blockchain-based prediction markets are attracting more speculators who are seeking returns beyond simply holding spot cryptocurrencies. Prediction markets are becoming a new arena for speculation, leading to "extreme information asymmetry and obvious arbitrage windows" between retail investors and professional data-driven traders. The report points out that, for quantitative traders, prediction markets can offer asymmetric returns that are more advantageous compared to the upside potential of spot tokens. For example, on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" shares for whether the BNB token will reach $1,500 by December 31, 2025, once traded at around $0.01, meaning there could be a potential 100x return if the event occurs. However, the high win rate of some prediction market accounts has sparked concerns about insider trading.
BNB-0.64%
