From HODL to daily Meme, how can I survive in this highly fragmented market?

Author: Route 2 FI

Compiled by DeepTech TechFlow

Gm, friends.

The cryptocurrency market is undergoing earth-shaking changes, and we must adjust our strategies and tactics, as the effective methods of the past are no longer applicable.

The traditional 'buy and hold (HODL)' strategy is gradually losing its effectiveness. With the increasing market volatility and the emergence of new projects, the belief in long-term holding becomes more fragile.

Today, the survival rule of the market is to trade flexibly, constantly adjust positions, and seek opportunities in a decentralized and uncertain environment.

Successfully adapting to this new landscape will determine whether you survive or be left out of the market.

Let's delve into it and see if there is still a glimmer of hope in such a market.

Altcoin Casino: How to Find a Way to Survive in the Fragmented Cryptocurrency Market

For those who have only entered the cryptocurrency market in the past year to a year and a half, the market is undergoing a profound transformation.

The 'shortcut' that used to easily profit through centralized exchanges has become increasingly complex. The market operates more like a casino than a traditional trading market, requiring investors to have unprecedented flexibility and sharpness.

The traditional "buy and hold" strategy, which worked in the early cycles, is no longer applicable. Holding periods are getting shorter and shorter, from weeks to even days (remember those old players who told us that we only need to buy altcoins at a low price and sell them at a high point?). ）。

Behind this change is the continuous emergence of new coins and projects. Each new project is competing for market attention and funding, constantly challenging the status of existing projects.

Even some events traditionally seen as positive can bring unexpected consequences. For example, Trump launched a highly anticipated Meme, which could attract a large number of new users into the cryptocurrency market, but at the same time could cause a sharp drop in the value of many altcoins. Typically, the beneficiaries are limited to Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), and related Meme coins.

Many investors have learned a painful lesson from it - if a portfolio is not heavily weighted in BTC and SOL, it may suffer significant losses.

Similar situations also occurred in the release of Berachain, which attracted a lot of attention and funds, but had an impact on the Abstract ecosystem.

In such a dynamic and unpredictable market, the wisest approach is to accept volatility as the norm of the market and to realize that with the continuous emergence of new currencies, new chains, and new projects, this volatility may be further exacerbated.

Therefore, many investors are readjusting their strategies, increasing the proportion of BTC and stablecoins in their holdings, while significantly reducing their positions in long-term altcoins. The market's focus has also shifted from "long-term investment" altcoins to "short-term trading" tactical operations.

The goal is to avoid becoming the "last believer" of those failed projects and see their value go to zero.

As the current cycle approaches its end, buying currencies other than BTC based on long-term investment logic may not offer ideal risk-return ratios. Although altcoins may be approaching their bottoms, the likelihood of most currencies, NFTs, or ecosystems simultaneously hitting new highs is decreasing.

Every day, a large number of new currencies are introduced, which dilutes the market's attention and capital, making it more difficult for existing projects to rise again.

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The current cryptocurrency cycle is filled with unprecedented challenges, as there is a stronger sense of uncertainty pervading the market than ever before. This uncertainty mainly stems from the fact that even popular altcoins, after experiencing significant declines, do not have enough confidence to confirm that they will rebound.

Looking back at the cycles of 2017 and 2021, investors typically have confidence in buying altcoins during bear markets as long as the market (mcap) cap( is not too low (usually below $100 million). The prevailing belief at the time was that these coins would recover their value during the cycle, at least not completely fade away in this cycle. Coins that garnered early market attention often can maintain their popularity and market position until the end of the cycle.

However, this cycle is completely different (yes, it is). The market is flooded with narratives and sub-narratives, each vying for investors' attention, but that attention is often fleeting. Investors are now more cautious about "buying the bottom", because the entire narrative of a coin can collapse at any time, making the investment worthless.

Unlike the past cycles that revolved around a single narrative, the current market presents multiple narrative-driven mini-cycles, each with its own peaks and valleys. Bitcoin )BTC( and Solana )SOL are widely considered as relatively safe choices that may eventually regain their value, but their potential returns may not be attractive for investors seeking high multiples (after all, BTC has already increased 6x from the bottom, while SOL has increased 20x). The question is whether to allocate funds to sectors such as AI cryptocurrencies. Although these sectors have recently received much attention, they have experienced significant retracements from historical highs and there are no clear signs indicating their ability to return to their peaks.

The highly fragmented nature of the market makes it difficult for investors to accurately identify and capture emerging trends. Cryptocurrencies have been a speculative market since their inception, and although past cycles have attempted to legitimize it by emphasizing 'peer-reviewed blockchain technology', 'solid fundamentals', and 'real-world applications', this round of cycles seems to have abandoned this facade and embraced a more realistic view: everything depends on how to attract and maintain market attention. This trend has led to a significant shortening of investors' attention cycles in the market. The 'bull market cycle' that used to last one to two years is now compressed into just a few months, weeks, or even days.

The current market seems to be experiencing a Meme super cycle (or has this cycle already ended?). However, even the most popular Memes have experienced a sharp decline from their peak, which makes investing in them more questionable.

In the current crypto market, investors face a higher 'catch-up risk' than ever before. In the past cycles, when similar downturns occurred, investors would usually see it as an opportunity to buy the dip, because the possibility of these currencies eventually rebounding is almost beyond doubt. However, the current issue is whether these currencies can regain the market attention they once had. The current market tends to support those leading currencies rather than projects that are lagging behind. Even if certain projects have strong fundamentals, it's difficult to gain favor without market heat.

Although Meme coins and AI projects have performed well in the current market, investors remain cautious about these trends because the shift in market focus is often rapid and difficult to predict. This pervasive uncertainty stems from the overwhelming number of choices facing investors. With thousands of coins and projects vying for attention in the crypto market, investors find it difficult to determine which projects have genuine potential and which are just a flash in the pan. The dispersion and transience of market attention make it difficult to form long-term market consensus on a particular project. A thought-provoking question is whether this phenomenon has become the new norm in the crypto market, or if it is only a temporary phenomenon in the current market environment.

Typically, each market cycle goes through an initial stage of chaos and scattered attention, followed by gradual stabilization as clear winners emerge. However, it is also possible that the market has undergone fundamental changes, and investors' attention spans have become increasingly short, no longer allowing a single narrative to dominate for long. At the same time, macroeconomic factors are profoundly influencing the current market landscape. In the past, loose monetary policy made investing relatively simple as ample liquidity drove speculative bubbles. However, in the current environment of high interest rates and tight liquidity, the market has become more challenging.

Investors' confidence in 'buying the dip' weakening likely reflects a more widespread economic reality. In the face of uncertain economic prospects, investors' risk appetite has declined significantly. Debates about the traditional four-year cycle are also increasing, with some predicting a possible extension of the cycle. However, from the current market performance, the four-year cycle seems to still exist, with some significant changes compared to the past. For example, the market performance in the current cycle is relatively lackluster: Bitcoin has only reached about 1.5 times the previous historical high, and Ethereum has not even broken through to a new high. This market performance is largely driven by specific events, such as Michael Saylor's support for Bitcoin and the launch of Bitcoin ETF, which has attracted the attention of institutional investors. However, capital inflows outside the Bitcoin ecosystem have been very weak, with speculative capital flowing more towards meme coins with extremely short lifecycles.

In the current market, speculative funds have almost disappeared, and the market lacks sufficient momentum to break through to new highs. Instead, funds are more circulating within the existing cryptocurrency field, presenting a 'net flat' state. Due to the lack of major liquidity providers, these scattered hotspots are difficult to drive the overall capital flow, and it is also difficult to attract a large influx of funds from new investors.

The performance of this round of cryptocurrency market cycle is significantly different from previous bull markets, which has led to profound thinking about the nature of the cryptocurrency market cycle. There is a lack of widespread speculation in the current market, and profits are concentrated in Bitcoin, while funds are circulating more within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. These phenomena indicate that the market is trying to adapt to a new operating mode. Key factors that have driven bull markets in the past, such as loose monetary policies and enthusiasm from retail investors, seem to be less significant in the current environment. The long-awaited "alt szn", a period when almost all altcoins experience rapid growth, has not really arrived yet.

Since the launch of Bitcoin ETF, the gap between the market value of Bitcoin and the total market value of other cryptocurrencies (i.e., BTC-TOTAL2 index) has continued to widen. During the past altcoin season, a large amount of speculative capital flooded into the market, causing almost all currencies to rise indiscriminately. However, Bitcoin now seems to have become an independent entity, with its price trend more influenced by ETFs, Microstrategy's strategic layout, macroeconomic environment, and political factors. In contrast, the altcoin market is more like a high-risk "casino." It is only when there is a large net inflow of funds into the market, and you are able to choose the right investment direction, that it is possible to achieve returns.

However, in this casino, behind every winner there is a loser. Compared to previous cycles, the cryptocurrency market in 2025 appears to be more complex and difficult to grasp. There are too many 'investment tracks' (i.e., different altcoins and niche areas) in the market, with new tokens emerging every day, competing for investors' attention and funds. The abundance of choices makes it difficult for investors to quickly identify projects with real potential, and it also increases the risk of investing in failed projects. In such a rapidly changing market, to succeed, one needs to have a high level of insight, keen market awareness, and agile adaptability.

Nevertheless, there are still some people who are full of confidence in the future of the altseason, and I sincerely hope that their predictions will come true.

That's all for today's sharing.

Wishing everyone a happy weekend, see you next week!