Fed Rate Decision Thursday: Will Crypto See a Major Rebound? BTC Analysis

The Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Thursday has crypto markets on edge, with Bitcoin (BTC) consolidating near $114,000 as investors anticipate a 25 basis point cut that could spark a rally or delay further easing.

BTC Market Dynamics: Pre-Decision Consolidation

BTC traded near $114,000, with a high of $116,400 before retreating to $114,000, reflecting heightened focus on the Fed’s announcement. Selling pressure from miners and veterans has eased, but market sentiment remains cautious, with volatility signaling a potential breakout or pullback. The 1.8% daily gain positions BTC for a rebound if the cut confirms expectations, but failure could test $113,500 support.

• Support: $111,200-$110,800; $109,800 critical.
• Resistance: $115,600-$116,000; $120,000 target.
• Drivers: Fed 96.7% cut odds; ETF $477M inflows.

(Sources: Kalshi)

Fed Rate Cut Expectations: 96.7% Probability

Markets price in a 96.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut to 4.50%-4.75%, following September CPI below expectations. Powell’s press conference could clarify quantitative tightening’s end, lifting liquidity. A 95.8% probability for 50 basis points cumulative by December suggests broader easing, potentially fueling risk assets like BTC toward $120,000-$130,000.

Trading Guide: Event-Driven Strategy with Stops

Event-driven: Long from $110,800-$111,200 on confirmation, stop $109,800 (1% risk), target $115,600. If $112,590-$115,106 holds, extend to $121,200. Failure below $111,111 ±200 shifts to short, with 10-30x leverage for aggressive styles, positions <10%. Steady mid-line: Batch at $110,000, stop $105,000. Range $109,300-$111,000 for T-scalps; out-of-bounds stops. FOMC pre: Low-volume holds; post-event, rebounds are escape windows.

2025 Outlook: $130K-$200K Consensus

Analysts forecast BTC at $130K-$200K by year-end. Changelly sees $123,849 in October; CoinDCX $131,500. VanEck targets $180K-$200K on ETF growth. For investors, how to buy Bitcoin via compliant platforms ensures entry. How to sell Bitcoin and how to cash out Bitcoin offer liquidity. Sell Bitcoin for cash and convert Bitcoin to cash enable fiat conversions.

In summary, BTC’s pre-Fed consolidation signals potential rally, blending rate cut hopes with technical strength for 2025’s surge.