Willy Woo: The next bear market will have a completely new catalyst.

The upcoming bear market may be harsher than ever, influenced by a downturn in the business cycle that has never occurred in the cryptocurrency sector before, according to expert analysis from Willy Woo.

Mr. Woo stated that the next bear market “will be shaped by a cycle that people may forget.” He pointed out that in the past, we have witnessed two overlapping cycles, based on the Bitcoin halving events that occur every four years and the changes in global M2 money supply.

“Central banks carry out M2 money pumping in four-year cycles, and both of these cycles interact with each other,” he explained.

However, according to Woo, the upcoming bear market will be determined by the business cycle. He emphasized that the latest business cycle downturns occurred in 2001 and 2008, before the emergence of cryptocurrency markets.

“If we experience a downturn in the business cycle similar to 2001 or 2008, this will challenge the way Bitcoin trades. Will it drop in price like tech stocks or will it trend down like gold?”

The Impact of Business Cycles on Liquidity

The downturn in the business cycle is defined as a period of economic decline, during which GDP decreases, unemployment rates rise, consumer spending declines, and business activity slows down. This is commonly referred to as a recession and typically occurs after periods of expansion.

Woo emphasizes that the cryptocurrency market does not exist in isolation and is influenced by broader economic cycles, particularly through the impact on liquidity.

The recession in the 2001 business cycle, also known as the “dot-com bubble,” saw an increase in unemployment rates and a 50% drop in U.S. stock markets (S&P 500) within two years. This event was triggered by the collapse of overvalued tech companies and excessive speculation.

In 2008, the “financial crisis” led to a significant contraction of GDP, increased unemployment rates, and a 56% decline in the S&P 500 index, triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis, the collapse of the banking system, and the credit freeze.

The Bear Market Timing

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) monitors four key indicators to determine recession: employment, personal income, industrial production, and retail sales.

There was a strong surge at the beginning of 2020 due to lockdown measures related to the pandemic, but it was only a very short recession. Currently, there are no signs that a recession is imminent, although the risks remain high.

This cycle has also been complicated by the implementation of trade taxes, which has reduced growth in the first half of 2025 and is expected to continue affecting GDP growth in the first half of 2026.

Woo concluded that the markets are speculative, meaning they price in future events, including M2 money supply. “Either Bitcoin is signaling to global markets that a peak has been reached, or Bitcoin will have to catch up,” he noted.

Mr. Teacher