Will Bitcoin peak in Q4? 8 major indicators to show you the turning signals of the bull run.

Analysis shows that Bitcoin may reach a peak again in the fourth quarter, with multiple market indicators having reached levels typical of a cycle's end, predicting a possible rise of 40-50%. This article is sourced from a piece by Michael Nadeau, authored for The DeFi Report and compiled, translated, and written by BitpushNews. (Background context: Bitcoin nearly lost 120,000 with a three-day gain wiped out, Ethereum fell below $4,500, and the four major U.S. stock indices closed in the red) (Contextual background: After 16 years of Bitcoin's existence, could Satoshi Nakamoto be in line for a Nobel Prize in Economics?) The adoption cycle of cryptocurrencies typically includes a three-year growth expansion phase, followed by a bear market lasting about a year. If we calculate from the low price point of BTC in November 2022, the current expansion period has lasted 1,044 days. For reference, the 2021 cycle expansion lasted 1,063 days, and the 2017 cycle was 1,065 days. By this measure, we are clearly in the "end of the cycle" phase of the current expansion stage. But how do the current data and key indicators compare to those in September 2021? We will answer this question in this report. Disclaimer: The views in this article are those of the author and should not be considered as investment advice. Realized Profit and Holding Duration Destruction Indicator Realized Profit According to Glassnode data, this cycle's BTC investors have realized $857 billion in profits—65% higher than the 2021 cycle peak. Considering that the higher the BTC price, the more profits long-term investors gain each cycle, this phenomenon is expected. A standardized way to compare is to relate the realized profit to the market capitalization of each cycle. The peak market cap for the 2021 cycle was $1.26 trillion, with a realized profit-to-market cap ratio of 0.41. BTC's current market cap is $2.28 trillion, and the current realized profit-to-market cap ratio for this cycle is 0.38. Conclusion? From a "wealth creation" perspective, we have now reached a level comparable to the entire 2021 cycle. Realized Profit Data Chart Holding Duration Destruction Indicator Another angle to examine profit-taking is the "holding duration destruction indicator." According to Glassnode's definition, this indicator measures the total number of days tokens are held before being spent. As shown in the figure below, the total "coin days destroyed" for this cycle is now 15% higher than the 2021 cycle. This also aligns with the characteristics of the "end of the cycle." Coin Days Destroyed Data Chart Long-Term Holder Supply The behavior pattern of long-term holders in this cycle is similar to the previous cycle. From October 2020 to March 2021, the supply of long-term holders decreased by 13.5% (corresponding to the first price peak in April 2021). Subsequently, the LT holder supply rebounded and continued to rise for the remainder of the cycle. Similarly, from December 2023 to February 2025, the long-term holder supply decreased by 12.4%, before rebounding to the current level of 73%. Conclusion: Long-term holders tend to allocate tokens to new funds entering the market. In the 2021 cycle, this occurred during the first price peak in April 2021. In the current cycle, this happened in the last quarter of last year and continued into the first quarter of this year. If we expect a breakout fourth quarter, we need to see new funds flowing into the market, which is a phenomenon we did not see during the same period of the previous cycle. Long-Term Holder Supply Data Chart Bitcoin Dominance In the past two cycles, the market peaked when Bitcoin's dominance fell to around 40%. In this cycle, we are far from that level. We believe there are several reasons: The financialization of BTC through ETFs and the participation of institutions; the maturity of the cryptocurrency market. In the previous cycle, aside from Ethereum, every L1 was a "shiny new toy" for investors to speculate on. Additionally, NFTs and DeFi were still in their early stages back then—investors may have severely overestimated their maturity, use cases, and sustainability. The situation is different now, as the market has matured. The 2021 cycle saw massive fiscal and monetary policy support due to COVID, a situation that may not be repeated. When altcoins perform far better than BTC, the motivation to hold BTC is minimal. The situation is different now, as asset selection becomes crucial. We still believe BTC's dominance will further decline, but it will not reach the levels seen in the past. Bitcoin Dominance Data Chart 200-Week Moving Average We closely monitor the 200-week moving average for two reasons: In bear markets, Bitcoin tends to fall to its 200-week moving average; In the past two cycles, when the 200-week moving average converged with the previous cycle peak, Bitcoin reached its top; The current 200-week moving average is $53,100. Will we ultimately fall to $66,000 (the previous cycle peak) this year? It seems unlikely, as our estimates show that even with a significant 40% rise in the coming months, the 200-week moving average will be in the $57,000 range. Of course, if the cycle extends into next year, returning to those levels is possible. Conclusion: As the cycle progresses, the diminishing returns principle is becoming evident, as shown in the figure below. 200-Week Moving Average Data Chart Realized Price and MVRV-Z Score Realized Price According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin's realized price (representing the cost basis of all coins on the network) is currently $53,800. Similar to the 200-week moving average, Bitcoin tends to revert to its realized price during bear markets, and cycles typically peak when realized price aligns with the previous cycle peak level. Similar to the 200-week moving average, we do not expect this indicator to reach the previous cycle peak this year—further emphasizing the diminishing returns principle. Realized Price Data Chart MVRV-Z Score The MVRV-Z score measures how much Bitcoin's market cap is "stretched" relative to its realized value, adjusted for historical volatility. The current reading of 2.28 indicates that Bitcoin's market cap deviates approximately 2.28 standard deviations from its cost basis compared to historical norms. Interestingly, we are currently at a higher level than during the same period of the 2021 cycle. At that time, Bitcoin rose about 50% in October/November, ending the cycle with an MVRV-Z score of 3.49. If this cycle's indicator approaches 3, BTC's price could reach the range of $160,000 to $170,000 (a rise of 40-50%). MVRV-Z Score Data Chart Fear and Greed Index Fear and Greed Index Data Chart If you think the current market is tense, then the market was even more fearful during the same period in 2021. In fact, in September 2021, we were in a state of extreme fear. At that time, BTC had just pulled back 20%, falling to $43,000, and subsequently rose to a peak of $66,000 within the next five weeks (a rise of 53%). Summary Outlook There is no law requiring Bitcoin to follow the "four-year cycle" path we have historically adhered to. However, after closely examining the data, it is hard to deny the possibility of a peak in the fourth quarter. Why? We believe that the "four-year cycle" framework is maintained for several reasons: Narrative anchoring. Investors expect "Halving...