How low is the probability of independent miners successfully obtaining a block? A complete guide to Bitcoin mining.

In 2025, the difficulty of Bitcoin mining reached a historic high, making the chances of independent miners successfully mining a block extremely low, comparable to winning the lottery. Mining has become highly specialized, mainly relying on industrial-grade ASIC Mining Rigs and cheap electricity. This article is based on a piece by Loke Choon Khei from Coingecko, organized, translated, and written by PANews. (Background: Tether aims to do 'real mining' by investing in the gold mining industry, currently holding $8.7 billion in gold reserves) (Additional context: Comprehensive analysis of cryptocurrency mining rigs: from CPU to ASIC, the evolution of mining hardware) Today, the competition in Bitcoin mining is fiercer than ever, with the difficulty value surpassing 129 trillion units, reaching an all-time high. For independent miners, the chance of success is approximately once every 8 years. Nevertheless, there are still reports of independent mining successes in 2025. Each lucky independent miner can earn Bitcoin worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. Key Points For independent miners, mining one Bitcoin requires approximately 860,000 kWh of electricity. Personal mining success is extremely rare, but it is still possible; recent winners in 2025 earned block rewards worth between $330,000 and $373,000. The difficulty of Bitcoin mining adjusts automatically every 2016 blocks (approximately every two weeks) to maintain a target block generation time of 10 minutes. Globally, the cost of electricity to mine one Bitcoin varies greatly: from as low as $1,324 in Iran to over $321,112 in Ireland. The current block reward is 3.125 Bitcoins (halved after the halving in April 2024), which is worth about $350,000 to $400,000 at current prices. Understanding Bitcoin's Block Reward: Before delving into mining difficulty, it is crucial to understand what miners are competing for. Bitcoin mining can be imagined as a global lottery held every 10 minutes, with winners receiving substantial rewards. Halving Effect Bitcoin has a built-in scarcity mechanism called halving (which occurs approximately every four years and cuts mining rewards). When Bitcoin was launched in 2009, miners received 50 Bitcoins for each block mined. Since then, this reward has halved multiple times: 2009 to 2012: 50 Bitcoins per block 2012 to 2016: 25 Bitcoins per block 2016 to 2020: 12.5 Bitcoins per block 2020 to 2024: 6.25 Bitcoins per block 2024 to 2028: 3.125 Bitcoins per block The current block reward is 3.125 BTC, worth approximately $373,000 at current Bitcoin prices. Halving puts deflationary pressure on Bitcoin's supply, increasing its scarcity while typically alleviating selling pressure from Bitcoin miners. Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustment: The Great Balancer Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment acts like an automatic referee, ensuring the game remains fair regardless of how many players join or leave. Understanding this mechanism is key to grasping why Bitcoin mining is becoming increasingly resource-intensive over time. Difficulty Adjustment Mechanism Imagine Bitcoin as a global large-scale puzzle competition, where a new puzzle must be accurately solved every 10 minutes. If the puzzle is being solved too quickly (due to more miners joining), Bitcoin will automatically make the puzzle harder. If the puzzle is solved too slowly (because miners leave), Bitcoin will make the puzzle easier. This process works as follows: Every 2016 blocks (approximately every two weeks), Bitcoin measures the average mining time for the previous 2016 blocks. If the average mining time is less than 10 minutes, the difficulty increases. If the average mining time exceeds 10 minutes, the difficulty decreases. Each adjustment can be up to 25%. This self-regulating mechanism ensures that whether there are 1,000 or 1 million miners competing, the generation speed of new Bitcoins remains at a predictable level of approximately one block every 10 minutes. Record Mining Difficulty in 2025 According to Coinwarz's Bitcoin mining difficulty chart, on August 3, 2025, the difficulty set a new historical record, reaching 129.7 trillion units, significantly increasing from previous years. In the past 30 days, the difficulty rose by 1.63%, while in the past 90 days, it increased by 6.61%. From another perspective, the mining difficulty of Bitcoin was only about 1 trillion at the beginning of 2017. The current difficulty of over 129 trillion means that the computational challenge of mining has increased by more than 129 times compared to eight years ago. Why Does Difficulty Adjustment Raise Resource Demand? As more miners join the network with more powerful equipment, the difficulty automatically increases to maintain the 10-minute block generation time. This triggers an 'arms race,' where miners must continually upgrade their equipment and enhance their computing power to maintain their chances of mining blocks. Think of it this way: if you participate in a race and the finish line moves further back every time more runners join, you must constantly speed up to maintain your chances of winning. This is precisely why Bitcoin mining today requires such massive resources, explaining why it was possible to mine Bitcoin using a regular computer in 2008, whereas now, to have the same chance, one must use warehouses filled with specialized mining rigs. Resources Required for Bitcoin Mining Today Now that we understand why Bitcoin mining has become increasingly difficult, let’s examine the vast resources required to compete in today’s mining environment. The difficulty adjustment mechanism we just discussed is the fundamental reason for the significant increase in these resource demands. Computing Power: Your Mining Firepower Computing power (the number of encryption calculations your mining equipment can perform per second) is the ticket to participate in the mining competition. Today, the total computing power of the Bitcoin network has risen to over 950 EH/s, continuously setting historical records. The growth of Bitcoin network computing power over the years. For reference: 1 MH/s = 1 million calculations per second 1 TH/s = 1 trillion calculations per second 1 PH/s = 1000 TH/s 1 EH/s = 1000 PH/s In today's competitive environment, a modern laptop's CPU might achieve approximately 1 to 10 MH/s (millions of calculations per second), making the chances of mining a block almost zero. In contrast, a standard ASIC Mining Rig like the Antminer S21 can produce 200 TH/s (200 trillion calculations per second), which is about 20 million times the computing power of a laptop. Hardware Requirements Modern Bitcoin mining relies entirely on ASIC Mining Rigs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits), which are specially designed computers for Bitcoin mining. Popular models include: Antminer S19 XP: approximately 140 TH/s, power consumption around 3,010 watts Antminer S21: approximately 200 TH/s, power consumption around 3,550 watts WhatsMiner M60S: approximately 172 TH/s, power consumption around 3,400 watts ASIC Mining Rigs can be imagined as specialized racing cars, designed exclusively for mining Bitcoin...