TradFi Market Outlook | 3/25

US Stocks: High-Level Consolidation, Awaiting Catalysts
Following yesterday's rebound, US equities are consolidating at higher levels today. The market has digested expectations of US-Iran easing, and lacks new catalysts for upside in the short term. This week, focus on core PCE data (the Fed's most closely watched inflation indicator); if data exceeds expectations, rate-cut expectations may be postponed again, pressuring US stocks.

Gold: Stabilizing After Pullback
Risk premium payback is largely complete, and gold prices have found support around $2,900. Medium to long-term fundamentals (central bank gold purchases + de-dollarization) remain unchanged; pullback zones present allocation opportunities. Should US-Iran negotiations hit snags, gold will rebound quickly.

Crude Oil: Finding Bottom at Low Levels
Geopolitical easing weighs on oil prices, but OPEC+ production cut floor remains intact. WTI has strong support in the $75-78 range; further downside is limited. Watch this week's EIA crude inventory data.

US Dollar: Narrow-Range Consolidation
Market awaits PCE guidance; the dollar index trades sideways in the 103-104 range. Direction depends on inflation data—if PCE is elevated, the dollar strengthens; if in line with expectations, the dollar weakens.

Bond Market: Stable
10-year US Treasury yield maintains the 4.2-4.3% range; markets diverge on the rate-cut path, with the bond market entering a wait-and-see mode.

Today's Core Assessment:

Markets enter a "data-driven" phase, with this week's PCE being the biggest variable. Prior to data release, various assets will trade sideways with unclear direction; maintaining light positions and observing is the optimal strategy.

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