#原油价格回落 Trump’s single word, oil prices stall, crypto counterattack
Following yesterday’s sharp decline in oil prices and a temporary easing of inflation expectations, Bitcoin experienced a significant retaliatory rebound, returning to the $70,000 level. This also once again demonstrates Bitcoin’s characteristic as a “liquidity thermometer.” Once the inflation-boosting “signal” from rising oil prices subsides, market fears of interest rate hikes diminish, liquidity expectations recover, and Bitcoin quickly regains lost ground.
This rise and fall also reflect the latest stance of the Trump administration on the war situation. In his speech yesterday, Trump’s attitude shifted subtly but critically. Although he previously demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” he stated at the latest press conference that the military operations by the US and Israel “are progressing very smoothly and ahead of schedule,” implying that the main military objectives have been “basically accomplished.” At the same time, Trump hinted at a ceasefire, openly stating that the conflict will “very soon” be resolved. While he did not specify a ceasefire timetable, this “mission nearly accomplished” posture greatly alleviated market fears of a “long war” and “full-scale conflict.” Meanwhile, concerns around the Strait of Hormuz also eased significantly this morning. The core logic behind the previous surge in oil prices was market fears that this critical global oil transit route, which accounts for nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil, would be blocked. Today, Trump played several cards on the supply side: announcing plans to deploy the US Navy to escort oil tankers directly, considering exemptions from some energy sanctions to hedge against Middle East shortages, and mentioning the mobilization of about 100 million barrels of Venezuelan oil into the market. G7 finance ministers issued a joint statement, saying that countries have reached a consensus and are ready to release emergency strategic oil reserves at any time. Under this multi-pronged approach, a large amount of short-term speculative funds began to close positions and withdraw near $120. Is Trump really going to cease fire? Most analysts believe that, similar to the “justified” start of the war, Trump is now looking for a decent “announce victory” and troop withdrawal opportunity to end military operations as quickly and honorably as possible. From a military perspective, the initial “decapitation” operations against Iran’s high-ranking officials and the large-scale destruction of Iran’s air force and navy at the start of the conflict have achieved a “major victory” militarily. Therefore, some analysts believe that as long as actual control over the Strait of Hormuz is established—whether through US military or private security intervention—the security of the energy corridor can be guaranteed. This “take the good when you can” mindset stems from the Trump administration’s desire to avoid repeating past mistakes. Trump is well aware of the complexity of Middle East affairs and fears that long-term deployment of ground troops could lead to endless guerrilla warfare and popular resistance, similar to the Iraq War, ultimately turning into a costly and exhausting conflict. What drives Trump to want to end it quickly is not only military judgment but also a more tangible economic “pain point”: oil prices and inflation. The chain reaction caused by soaring oil prices has put significant pressure on the US economy. As crude oil prices once surged past $119 per barrel, domestic trucking costs in the US rose sharply. This increase in logistics costs directly transmitted to consumer prices, leading to a broad rise in prices. Trump is acutely aware that if oil prices cannot be quickly stabilized, out-of-control inflation will threaten his political reputation and could be attacked by opponents as mismanagement. Therefore, releasing the expectation that “the war will end very soon” to curb financial market speculation and cause oil prices to plummet back below $90 is a key strategy for him to ease domestic economic tensions.
Additionally, this analysis suggests that domestic security and the midterm election agenda are also influencing factors. Currently, there are signs of suspected “sleeping cells” in the US, with arrests of immigrants involved in bomb-making in places like New York. Domestic security unrest triggered by the war is a push for Trump to quickly “calm things down.” Meanwhile, Trump is actively pushing for the passage of the “Save America Act,” aiming to pave the way for the midterm elections through measures like regulating citizen voting. For Trump, he prefers to focus on elections and domestic governance rather than staying long on a battlefield that could erupt into terror attacks at any moment and is burning money every day. Therefore, he needs to find a balance within the next one or two weeks to withdraw troops as soon as possible.
If Trump truly finds that “announce victory” opportunity soon, the geopolitical premium on oil prices will accelerate its decline, and the inflation narrative will cool down, reopening the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path. At that point, the liquidity expansion logic Raoul Pal talks about will no longer be just a medium-term expectation but could arrive faster than most people anticipate. Today’s Bitcoin rebound may just be a preview.
